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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 15:00:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 15:23:13 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151456 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Dry air appears to be disrupting Ernesto's attempts to become more organized. Recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a large dry slot wrapping into the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ernesto has found peak flight-level winds of 87 kt and an expanded surface wind field. Normally, this elevated wind would reduce to a surface wind speed of 75-80 kt, however, given the broad nature of the storm and lack of inner-core organization, these winds may not be mixing down as efficiently as usual. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is moving to the north at about 12 kt. The model guidance is tightly clustered and shows the hurricane turning to the northeast within a day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge towards a trough located off the coast of the eastern United States. As the trough lifts by the weekend, Ernesto should slow and turn to the north-northeast or north, while approaching Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday. By the end of the weekend, Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward near the coast of Atlantic Canada. There have been little changes to the most recent NHC track forecast, which lies just west of the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.0N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 151456 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 17(51) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) 39(43) 40(83) 8(91) X(91) X(91) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 25.0, -69.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 69.2W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 69.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. A Saildrone just north of the center measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 649 WTNT25 KNHC 151455 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 69.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 10SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 69.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE

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