Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 150855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 53(70) 22(92) 1(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 32(67) 1(68) X(68) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 1(43) X(43) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150854 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 165NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.4N 69.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 68.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.1N 65.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 69.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 23.3, -69.1 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERNESTO IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 69.1W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41046, located about 40 miles north of Ernesto, recently reported a wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 997.9 mb (29.47 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 05:48:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT

Matthew Stafford experienced hamstring tightness and did not finish the Rams' joint practice Wednesday against the Cowboys.

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews avoided injury after being involved in a serious car accident where two vehicles sustained heavy damage.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150518
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Turks
and Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

In "Rhythm Masters," the legendary drummer creates an original score inspired by sports icons.