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Hurricane Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 02:45:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2024 03:23:06 GMT
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
000
WTNT45 KNHC 150242
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A
series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the
formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an
eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has
fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite
broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the
northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning.
Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The
hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion
during the next day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree
the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto.
As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and
north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday
night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move
across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward
early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall
agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto's
center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely
be required for the island on Thursday.
While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the
very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote
some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported
by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane
models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on
Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some
gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a
drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that
positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause
Ernesto's intensity to level off or even slightly increase during
the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the
model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical
characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall
associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda late Thursday
and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this
weekend.
2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be
aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf
and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas
during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 150241
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 38(89) 2(91) X(91)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 46(62) 2(64) X(64)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 1(39) X(39)
MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
Summary for Hurricane Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE APPROACHING BERMUDA...
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14
the center of Ernesto was located near 23.0, -68.9
with movement NNW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 150241
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024
...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 68.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a slower
northward to northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
512
WTNT25 KNHC 150240
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 68.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Categories: Weather
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