...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 26.1, -68.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 631 WTNT35 KNHC 152046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 68.9W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde observation is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 027 WTNT25 KNHC 152045 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 68.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE

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