Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160844 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto's strengthening trend has seemingly halted overnight. The cloud pattern near the center has become less organized, and the system appears to be struggling with dry air again with some eyewall erosion in the western semicircle. Still, the convective banding in the eastern side where the previous aircraft mission found the peak winds remains deep and well-defined, suggesting that Ernesto hasn't lost much strength. The initial wind speed is kept at 85 kt for this advisory, a bit above the latest satellite estimates, pending the upcoming Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission this morning. The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today. However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast values being a lot lower than 6 h ago. Given current trends, the NHC prediction has been decreased from the last forecast, and is still on the high side of the guidance. It is worth noting that despite the peak wind speed reductions, the forecast size is generally larger than the previous forecast, so the life-threatening hazards from Ernesto are unchanged. After the hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters, and little change was made at longer range. Ernesto continues moving north-northeastward at about 11 kt, steered by the flow between a ridge over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to persist for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. The trough is forecast is lift out over the weekend, causing Ernesto to slow down and turn a bit to the north or north-northeast. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that feature should cause Ernesto to accelerate to the northeast near or east of Newfoundland early next week. The NHC track forecast continues to the trend of the previous one, nudged a touch to the east and a little slower through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest aids. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 28.1N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 28.1, -67.0 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS BERMUDA STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 67.0W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 160843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 16(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 3(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) X(47) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 15 74(89) 8(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 1 57(58) 26(84) 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) BERMUDA 64 X 24(24) 38(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160843 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 67.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 210SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 65.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 64.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.2N 63.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 190SE 180SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 52.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 67.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 05:41:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 03:23:02 GMT

...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 27.6, -67.5 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160541 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 67.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength late today. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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