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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 02:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 03:23:02 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 Ernesto has been strengthening this evening. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to about 968 mb, and a blend of the peak flight-level and SFMR winds support increasing the initial intensity to 85 kt. This makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ernesto has a ragged eye and a large wind field, with the highest winds occurring in the northeast quadrant. Ernesto is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a high pressure system over the central Atlantic and a large-scale trough off the U.S. east coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, bringing the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Around that time, the trough is expected to lift out, leaving Ernesto in weaker steering currents. As a result, a slower and likely more erratic motion to the north or north-northeast is forecast over the weekend. Another trough is expected to approach the cyclone late in the weekend, and that should cause an accelerated motion to the northeast near or east of Atlantic Canada early next week. The NHC track forecast is a touch to the east and a little slower than the previous one through its passage near Bermuda to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. It seems likely that Ernesto will strengthen some more during the next 12 to 24 hours as it is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear, upper-level diffluence, a relatively moist airmass, and over warm waters during that time. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and gradually cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend. However, baroclinic influences could offset some of the weakening, which is why the official forecast shows little change in strength during the 48- to 72-hour time frame. Ernesto is forecast to complete extratropical transition by day 5, when it will likely be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving toward Bermuda, and it is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda from Friday afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda overnight and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 160234 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 36(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 15(50) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 50(53) 40(93) 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BERMUDA 50 X 8( 8) 61(69) 10(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) 40(41) 12(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 27.1, -68.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...PREPARATIONS ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 68.1W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 68.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 68.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 64.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 62.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.6N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 190SE 180SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 68.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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