Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 66.5W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 66.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 11:55:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:23:01 GMT

266
ABNT20 KNHC 161141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 08:48:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 09:23:01 GMT