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Hurricane Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 20:51:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 21:23:03 GMT
Categories: Weather
Missouri Woman Charged in Scheme to Defraud Presleys and Sell Graceland
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
562
WTNT45 KNHC 162045
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on
satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began
after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the
hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural
improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall
definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved
eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before
departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was
107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt
at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit
lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher
aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon.
Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest
eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of
hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet.
Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon,
estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track
thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has
been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind
over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a
subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to
temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to
dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that
will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast
days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this
afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and
the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to
the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's
large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow
morning.
Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that
Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt
vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been
been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size.
Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening,
though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models
over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while
Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the
intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by
showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will
quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also
begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows
the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as
the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland
Canada.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds
and storm surge on Bermuda that is beginning currently and expected
to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect
for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should
be completed as tropical-storm-force winds are already
being observed on the island.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact
Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable
life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on
the island.
3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a
significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay
out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents
are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
768
FONT15 KNHC 162043
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 1(44)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) X(54)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 1(44) X(44)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 50 89 9(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
BERMUDA 64 58 28(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Categories: Weather
Summary for Hurricane Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY...
As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16
the center of Ernesto was located near 30.6, -65.6
with movement NE at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 969 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
610
WTNT35 KNHC 162043
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024
...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 65.6 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An
accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend
into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of
Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108
km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International
Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h),
with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are also
beginning to affect the east coast of the United States and will
likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office,
and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
255
WTNT25 KNHC 162043
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 230SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 160SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 65.6W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Categories: Weather
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