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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 08:59:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 09:23:05 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170857 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda at about 430 AM AST, with the National Museum of Bermuda recently reporting light winds and a central pressure of 972 mb. The system overall has become less organized as drier air has infiltrated much of the circulation's southern semicircle. Earlier aircraft reconnaissance data supported 75-80 kt as an initial intensity, and with the degradation in the satellite imagery, 75 kt is chosen as the current intensity (and operational landfall intensity). The Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be out again in a few hours to sample the cyclone. While the current moderate shear is forecast to weaken today, it will take some time for the vortex to recover from the dry air as it moves across warm waters north of Bermuda. Thus little change in intensity is anticipated in the short term, and re-strengthening could begin tomorrow. This should be a fairly short-lived window, however, since Ernesto will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Monday while moving into a strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast for the work week, and Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition near or just east of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, a bit lower in the short-term to account for recent guidance. Ernesto has turned more to the north-northeast overnight and slowed down to about 8 kt. The motion should creep in that direction today as the hurricane is stuck in an area of lighter steering currents, waiting for the next trough to move off the U.S. East coast. This slow motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through tonight on Bermuda. The trough should force the cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The guidance is again slower than the previous cycle, so the NHC track forecast is trended in that direction. Global model fields depict that Ernesto should open into a trough, or become absorbed in a larger polar low by 120 h over the northern Atlantic ocean, thus the NHC forecast now shows the system dissipated at that time. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring periods of strong winds, storm surge and battering waves on Bermuda through tonight. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and residents there should listen to orders from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall from Ernesto will continue to impact Bermuda through tonight and will likely result in considerable life- threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 4. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 64.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.3, -64.8 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170855 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MAKES LANDFALL ON BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.8W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Surface observations indicate that Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda around 430 AM AST (0830 UTC). At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.8 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). The National Museum on Bermuda recently reported a central pressure of 972 mb (28.71 mb). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 170855 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 24(55) X(55) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 1(62) X(62) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170855 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 285SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 130SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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