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Hurricane Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 14:55:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 24
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
000
WTNT45 KNHC 171453
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made a couple of
passes through Ernesto this morning and only found 700-mb flight
level winds as high as 74 kt--significantly lower than the maximum
winds reported by the mission yesterday evening and overnight. The
initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt for this advisory, and
even that could be a bit generous. Although the central pressure
has not risen much, Ernesto's wind field has continued to expand,
and the hurricane is now exhibiting a large rain-free center region
that is just about to move past Bermuda.
The forward motion has slowed a bit more and is now estimated to be
north-northeastward (025 degrees) at 7 kt. Ernesto has been left
behind by a shortwave trough now located near Newfoundland, and
therefore a continued slow motion toward the north-northeast is
forecast for the next day or so until another trough to the west
gets closer. Ernesto should begin accelerating on Sunday as it
heads toward Atlantic Canada, turning northeastward and passing
very near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
The guidance has again slowed down on this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
Although deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish a bit during the
next 24 hours while Ernesto remains over waters of 28 degrees
Celsius, the structure of the hurricane and dry air within the
circulation suggest that the storm may not be able to re-intensity
much, if at all. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of
the guidance and does keep Ernesto as a hurricane for the next 48
hours. Weakening is expected after that time, and global model
fields suggest Ernesto should become extratropical by 72 hours
while or just after passing Newfoundland. A 96-hour point is
provided for continuity, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that
the circulation could open up into a trough over the north Atlantic
by then.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves are likely through tonight. The heavy rains will
likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.
2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 32.9N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 171452
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 2(45) X(45)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Categories: Weather
Summary for Hurricane Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17
the center of Ernesto was located near 32.9, -64.4
with movement NNE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 974 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 24
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 171452
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin on Sunday,
with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late
Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto
will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum
of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)
and a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane-force gusts are possible on Bermuda for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue through
this evening or tonight.
STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on
Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will
reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next
couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather
office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 24
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024
000
WTNT25 KNHC 171452
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 280SE 260SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 64.5W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 64.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Categories: Weather