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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 02:40:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 26
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
757
WTNT45 KNHC 180238
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show
limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest
convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle.
This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the
system from the northwest into the central core. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this
the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.
The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue
for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the
north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States
should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast,
northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring
the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday
night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic
thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.
Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries
to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence
is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively
warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as
show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the
intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it
moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition.
Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low
is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern
Atlantic between 72-96 h.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy
rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024
000
FONT15 KNHC 180237
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) X(56) X(56)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) X(49)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 24(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17
the center of Ernesto was located near 33.9, -63.3
with movement NNE at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 978 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 26
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
000
WTNT35 KNHC 180237
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area on
Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An
acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on
Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast
occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight.
Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and
Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely
become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night
or Tuesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches
or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 26
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024
000
WTNT25 KNHC 180237
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 63.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Categories: Weather
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Hurricane Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 23:42:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 21:22:57 GMT
Categories: Weather
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172339
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located just northeast of Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Categories: Weather
Summary for Hurricane Ernesto (AT5/AL052024)
...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17
the center of Ernesto was located near 33.5, -63.7
with movement NNE at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Categories: Weather
Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory Number 25A
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
980
WTNT35 KNHC 172336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
Sunday morning.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow
motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration
toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a
turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly
move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane
strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become
post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or
Tuesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next several hours.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Categories: Weather
Madrid consider extra holidays amid burnout fears
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Categories: Sports