Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 182042 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 25(25) 33(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 3 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 37.1, -62.3 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 62.3W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 62.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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