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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 02:37:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 213 WTNT45 KNHC 190234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 Ernesto continues to have a good structure this evening with a partly cloud-filled eye surrounded by bands of convection, although the convective cloud tops are not quite as cold as they were 6 h ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now near 65 kt, while various objective estimates are now near 75 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of these data. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 h before Ernesto moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. After that, the system should quickly decay as it moves over colder water and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. The cyclone should become an extratropical low by 36 h as it passes south of southeastern Newfoundland, and by 72 h it should be absorbed into a larger non-tropical low developing south of Iceland. The new intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance for the first 12 h, and after that lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now 030/17 kt. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the hurricane's southeast. This motion should bring the center south of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, with most of the wind field staying offshore. A more east-northeastward motion is expected thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical cyclone. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted a little to the north since the last advisory, so the new track forecast is a little north of the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 38.5N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190233 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 24(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 38.5, -61.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 61.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast and an additional increase in forward speed are expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Ernesto should weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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