5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 20:46:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

The former president has been preoccupied with the popularity of the pop music megastar, who endorsed Joseph R. Biden Jr. over him during the 2020 election.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 967 WTNT45 KNHC 192036 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Ernesto is maintaining its intensity at high latitudes. The hurricane continues to have an eye feature, especially in the mid-levels, and thunderstorms remain most organized north of the center. Recent microwave images indicate that the circulation has become titled from southwest to northeast with height, an indication of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in general agreement with the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Ernesto has likely peaked in strength. Since the hurricane has now crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream and moving into an environment of increasing shear and drier air, steady or rapid weakening is expected to begin soon. The environmental factors should also cause extratropical transition, which will likely be complete Tuesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the northeast, or 35 degrees at 23 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 43.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 43.8, -56.1 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.8N 56.1W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 192035 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 56 44(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 1 59(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192035 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 150SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 280SE 250SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 200SE 160SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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