“Momala” makes for a charming political biography, but it isn’t powerful enough to counter the racial fears that nonwhite motherhood stokes in the nation.

Georgia Republicans have empowered local election officials to delay certifying the vote.

In a lengthy report released on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, Republicans used circumstantial evidence to accuse the president of corruption tied to his son’s foreign business dealings.

TV shows that are expensively made yet irritating to sit through — for some reason, I can’t get enough of them. Why do so many of us watch things we think are bad?

After the blaze killed 49 migrant workers, a government crackdown focused on building violations — bypassing deeper problems that leave migrants with low wages and unsafe housing across the oil-rich Gulf.

Chris Murphy has been trying to understand why our version of liberalism — emphasizing free markets and consumer choice — feels to many like a dead end.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 070 WTNT45 KNHC 190844 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's eye is irregularly-shaped, with fairly cold convective cloud tops over the northern portion of the circulation. The southwestern part of the high cloud canopy is beginning to become slightly blunted, which suggests some southwesterly shear is beginning to affect the system. The various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS indicate that, a couple of hours ago, the hurricane strengthened a little more, but recently the overall cloud pattern appears to have become a little less organized. This suggests that Ernesto has stopped strengthening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 75 kt which is in general agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers. Center fixes indicate a gradual increase in forward speed overnight and the initial motion estimate is 030/18 kt. Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a large deep-layer trough near the U.S. east coast for the next 24 hours or so. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone near southeastern Newfoundland tonight or early Tuesday. Based on the NHC forecast, most of the stronger winds in the system's circulation are expected to stay offshore of Newfoundland. Thereafter, a faster east-northeastward motion over the North Atlantic is forecast while the cyclone becomes fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to open up into a trough while merging with a large extratropical low to the south of Iceland. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus and is just slightly to the north of the previous NHC prediction. Ernesto will be traversing significantly cooler waters later today and will be impacted by increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or two. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin by tonight or earlier. The official intensity forecast is quite similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS numerical guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that the system will become post-tropical within the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 40.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 08:45:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 09:23:08 GMT

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 40.2, -60.5 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 60.5W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 60.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Ernesto is expected to lose tropical characteristics during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 49(49) 40(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 3( 3) 38(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 1 66(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 849 WTNT25 KNHC 190841 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Ernesto was creating dangerous surf conditions that were expected to continue for several days, forecasters warned.

Mr. Santos intends to enter a guilty plea and sidestep a federal trial, according to people familiar with the case.

Buses are often unreliable and slow (thanks to clogged streets), but even projects to ease these problems are getting delayed. Is Mayor Eric Adams to blame?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

An unusual and chaotic set of political circumstances forced Illinois’s billionaire governor to take the lead in securing the Democratic convention for Chicago.

The party is over for China’s economy, and poor nations around the world are feeling the effects.