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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 08:40:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 09:22:48 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 939 WTNT45 KNHC 200838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 Increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear is affecting the cyclone, displacing most of the remaining deep convection to the east of the low-level center. The system's cloud pattern is already taking on a less tropical-looking appearance, making intensity estimates via the Dvorak technique somewhat problematic. However, a couple of ship reports of winds of 58 and 51 kt to the east of the center indicate that Ernesto is still near hurricane strength. Thus, the advisory intensity is set at 65 kt. The hurricane has been accelerating northeastward and the initial motion estimate is 050/31 kt. Ernesto is embedded within a strong deep-layer flow between a large trough over the northeastern U.S. and a ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. In a day or so, an even faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast is likely as the cyclone comes more under the influence of a large deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, and follows the multi-model consensus solution. Continued weakening is likely as Ernesto moves over cold water and remains under the influence of strong shear. Based on current trends and simulated satellite imagery from the global models, the system's deep convection should be disrupted to the point that Ernesto will have become a post-tropical cyclone in about 12 hours. In 24 hours, the guidance shows a frontal appearance indicating extratropical transition. In 36 hours or so, Ernesto is predicted to open up into a trough over the northeastern Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 47.3N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 20 the center of Ernesto was located near 47.3, -50.0 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 179 WTNT35 KNHC 200837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.3N 50.0W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 47.3 North, longitude 50.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move over the open North Atlantic today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Ernesto should lose its tropical characteristics later today, and dissipate on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. The swells and the associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 145 FONT15 KNHC 200837 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200836 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 360SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 170SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.3N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

The two groups described the attack as a suicide bombing, but an Israeli statement did not. If confirmed, it would be the first suicide bombing in Israel in roughly eight years.

In 1924, a radio receiver built for the battlefields of World War I tested the idea that humans were not alone in the solar system, heralding a century of searches for extraterrestrial life.

Justin Turner returned to Dodger Stadium on Monday night for the first time since leaving the Dodgers in 2022 after a nine-year run as their gritty third baseman, which included a World Series championship.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Eight years after failing to smash the “highest and hardest glass ceiling” in politics, Hillary Clinton urged her party to make Kamala Harris the nation’s first female president.

The offer by Edgar Bronfman Jr., the former head of Warner Music Group, comes days before a crucial deadline in the scramble to acquire control of Paramount.

The country’s spirit has moved on.