Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180855 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 Corrected text of second key message. Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation. The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC track forecast were required. Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48 hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.6, -63.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 63.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 180843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 23(59) X(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

MLB Players' Weekend allows major leaguers to show their true selves and pay homage to those who have contributed to their journeys. Here are the best moments from the weekend.

The Padres' rookie center fielder's new bat features a lightsaber-inspired handle and a glow-in-the-dark barrel.

More than 300 have been processed in a prison in Ukraine, providing the country with a much-needed “exchange fund” for future swaps of prisoners of war.

Could a six-inning minimum make starters stars again and inject offense into the game?

Why Oregon is everything Dan Lanning could have ever wanted.

After winning an Olympic gold in Paris, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu capped a whirlwind week by helping the Liberty clinch a playoff berth with a 79-67 win over the Aces.

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had a disastrous start in his return from a torn ACL when he threw a pair of first-half interceptions Saturday in a 28-10 loss to the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

As President Biden’s understudy, Ms. Harris did not often get to lead on signature issues. But she found roles to play on abortion rights, gun safety and a Supreme Court appointment.

It's time for the 2024 MLB Little League Classic! The New York Yankees will take on the Detroit Tigers. Check out how to watch the action now.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 05:48:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.2, -63.1 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

214
ABNT20 KNHC 180544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Residents of the village in the Israeli-occupied West Bank say one Palestinian man was killed by rampaging settlers. Israel’s military confirmed the village was attacked.