5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 05:55:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 03:24:10 GMT

...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 32.0, -65.1 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170555 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 65.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda within a few hours and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The L. F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located near Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 02:35:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Aug 2024 03:24:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170232 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto is very near Bermuda. The island has been in the northern rainbands since this afternoon, and the eyewall is closing in on the island as seen in Bermuda's Doppler radar images. So far, tropical-storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane force have been observed on Bermuda, and the strongest winds will likely occur there during the next several hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ernesto this evening and found that the minimum pressure has been steady around 969 mb. A blend of the latest flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of about 80 kt. Recent microwave images indicate that the vortex is tilted to the east-northeast with height due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The already tilted vortex coupled with continued moderate to strong shear and possible intrusions of dry air should cause some weakening during the next day or so. However, the shear is expected to lessen during the 24- to 60-h time period, and since Ernesto will still be over the Gulf Stream Current then, the weakening trend should pause. In fact, Ernesto is forecast to strengthen some during that time, following the hurricane regional models and consensus aids. On Monday, the cyclone is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and track over sharply cooler waters while moving into a strong wind shear environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast at that point, and Ernesto is expected to complete extratropical transition shortly after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Ernesto is still moving northeastward at 11 kt, however, the hurricane is expected to slow down soon as the trough off Atlantic Canada continues to lift out. The expected slower motion and Ernesto's large size will cause a long duration of impacts through Saturday night on Bermuda. After the hurricane pulls away from Bermuda, another trough is forecast to push off the U.S. east coast. This feature should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward later in the weekend and early next week, taking Ernesto near Newfoundland Monday night. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Residents there should listen to orders from local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.4N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 170232 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) X(50) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 16(52) X(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 1(42) X(42) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 31.4, -65.2 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO VERY NEAR BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 65.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (120 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island into Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170231 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 65.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 45.1N 54.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 51.3N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 185SE 180SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 54.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 65.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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