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...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 29.5, -66.4 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 972 WTNT35 KNHC 161442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located to the northeast of Ernesto recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (73 km/h), with a gust up to 57 mph (93 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 973 FONT15 KNHC 161442 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 2(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 1(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 80 19(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 15 73(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BERMUDA 64 2 60(62) 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 14:45:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2024 15:23:01 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161444 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto appears to be feeling the effects of vertical wind shear this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous. The hurricane remains quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 240 n mi southeast of the center. Ernesto continues to move north-northeast, estimated at 330/12 kt. The deep-layer trough that has been initially influencing Ernesto's motion is already starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and the track guidance indicates the hurricane will begin to slow its forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move north-northeastward. After that time, another shortwave trough currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig southeastward, which should ultimately result in Ernesto accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to its southeast. The track guidance this cycle is quite close to the prior forecast, and the NHC track forecast only has minor changes compared to the previous cycle. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is already up to 25 kt or greater, and this shear is likely to persist for another 12 to 24 h. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a little more weakening, though it should be noted some of the hurricane regional models show Ernesto weakening below hurricane intensity over the next 36 h. Thereafter, as the first trough bypasses the system, the forecast shear decreases while the tropical cyclone remains over 28 C or warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, there remains an opportunity for Ernesto to re-intensify before it reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream by early next week. However, extratropical transition will likely be underway shortly after it crosses over much cooler waters after 72 h, with the latest NHC forecast showing the system becoming extratropical at 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda starting this afternoon through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through this weekend and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161440 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 230SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 45SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 75SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 160SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 66.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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