5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:52:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:30:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 051451 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK TURNING MORE NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 27.6, -50.3 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK TURNING MORE NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 50.3W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 50.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051451 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 50.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 190SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 50.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.1N 45.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.4N 40.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 24.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 125SE 105SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 47.2N 5.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 54.9N 8.2E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 150SW 200NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 50.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051450 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt), steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday, increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours. There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur. Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength beyond 48 h. If trends continue further downward adjustments may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 11.1N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 051450 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...LESLIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 11.1, -35.4 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 35.4W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 35.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051449 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 35.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 35.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:43:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 09:23:11 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050840 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 The eye of Kirk has become ragged and cloud filled during the past several hours. The satellite presentation suggests that southwesterly shear and intrusions of dry air are negatively affecting the hurricane, as a pronounced dry slot is noted on the western side of Kirk. As a result of these structural changes, the satellite intensity estimates have decreased overnight. Based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB with recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. Kirk continues to turn more northward (340/11 kt) within the flow between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The track models agree that Kirk should keep recurving to the northeast and east-northeast through early next week while accelerating within strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. No significant changes were made to the updated NHC prediction. The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile over the coming days, with a marked increase in shear and a drier environment surrounding the hurricane while it moves over progressively cooler waters. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. Kirk should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone between 60-72 h, which is supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening, close to or slightly above the latest HCCA aid. However, note that the wind field of the cyclone is forecast to remain quite large through the 5-day forecast period. Large and powerful Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 26.2N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 631 FONT12 KNHC 050839 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 26.2, -50.2 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 50.2W ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 50.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050839 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 50.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 140SE 130SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 230SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 150SW 200NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:39:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 09:29:17 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 A 0552 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that Leslie still has a well-defined mid-level eye, and deep convection continues to burst over the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, while objective numbers are overall a bit higher than that. Therefore, Leslie's intensity is now estimated to be 70 kt. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with the cyclone still located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched and strengthen over the eastern Atlantic during the next several days, which should cause Leslie to move northwestward and accelerate a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids, and nearly lies on top of the previous prediction. The intensity forecast is the most challenging part of this advisory. Deep-layer shear is relatively low at the moment and should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This is the period where the NHC forecast shows additional strengthening, and is close to the statistical-dynamical models near the top end of the guidance. Increased shear, combined with Leslie potentially moving over Kirk's cold wake, could cause some weakening after 24 hours. All of the intensity models support this scenario, however they differ significantly in how much weakening will occur. The NHC forecast continues to show Leslie maintaining hurricane status through day 5, mainly following the SHIPS model. However, the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, as well as several of the hurricane regional models, suggest that Leslie could weaken below hurricane intensity by 48 hours. Downward adjustments to the intensity forecast may be required in future advisories if this trend continues. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 10.7N 34.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 050837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG