Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...LITTLE LESLIE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 32.0W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 32.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this is expected to continue through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon or evening a slightly faster west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 32.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 31.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 32.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040232 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...KIRK IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Kirk was located near 21.5, -47.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...KIRK IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 47.5W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 47.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through early Friday, but steady weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 170SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 220SW 190NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 240SE 220SW 270NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western
Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over the south-central or southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Gradual development is possible after the low develops, and a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the
early or middle portions of next week while the low moves slowly
eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over
portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 20:43:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 21:23:16 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 20:41:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 21:29:18 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032039 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to improve on satellite imagery, with a well-defined circular eye. Infrared imagery depicts an inner core with cold tops wrapping entirely around the eye, with lightning depicted on GLM data in the northern eyewall. A recent GMI microwave pass also depicts A tight inner core, and a vertically aligned structure of the system. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T5.5/102 kt. for this cycle. However, the UW-CIMMS objective estimates and SATCON are a little higher and range from 110-124 kt Given the improved satellite depiction in recent hours and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Kirk is now a category 4 major hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 315/10 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. Kirk will begin to curve and turn northeastward this weekend between an approaching trough the eastern/central Atlantic and the subtropical ridge. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next 24 h or so. Beyond 36 h, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Global model fields depict the system becoming extra-tropical by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous, with a higher peak intensity given the current initial intensity. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.1N 46.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly

...KIRK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Kirk was located near 21.1, -46.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 46.7W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 46.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 032039 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032038 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt. The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and lies near the simple consensus aids. Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 032038 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 170SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 220SW 190NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 240SE 220SW 270NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -31.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 31.5W ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 31.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 032038 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS