...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 23.7, -49.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 49.4W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1645 MI...2650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 042045 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 The convective structure of Leslie has become better organized this afternoon with a more symmetrical convective shield. There have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes the last several hours to help evaluate the structure further. The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T/3.5 and T/4.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory. Leslie is moving slowly west-northwestward at 290/6 kt, and this motion is expected to continue as the storm rounds the subtropical ridge anchored over the east Atlantic. Leslie should continue west-northwestward then turn more northwestward by the end of the weekend with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly well clustered and the NHC track lies near the consensus aids. The intensity forecast has become a little more uncertain with varying model solutions the last few model cycles, especially with the peak intensity and potential weakening towards the middle to end of the period. Northeasterly shear from Kirk has started to weaken over the system this afternoon, and that has likely aided the improved convective pattern. Leslie will be within a favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment for steady strengthening over the next 2 days or so. Beyond that time models begin to plateau the strengthening or start a weakening trend, as Leslie encounters some westerly shear and a drier air mass. There is a notable difference between the GFS and ECMWF in how hostile the environment will be by five days, with the ECMWF showing more shear, a much drier air mass, and a much weaker Leslie. One other issue is that the forecast track is expected to take Leslie over the cold wake left behind from Hurricane Kirk. Given the lowering intensity guidance and varying model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward, but still lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast may be needed on later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 10.3N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 10.7N 34.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 12.2N 37.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 13.5N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 10.3, -33.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 33.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 33.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed is expected early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042044 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 49.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 280SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042044 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042044 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 33.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.7N 34.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.2N 37.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 41.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 48.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 33.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041441 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core. Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected consensus and simple consensus aids. Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system. Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3 days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 10.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:29:06 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041440 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 32.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 920 FONT13 KNHC 041440 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 10.0, -33.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 33.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 33.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:36:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:23:08 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041432 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 The satellite appearance of Kirk is a little less impressive than it was six hours ago, as the eye has become somewhat cloud-filled and the convective cloud tops have warmed a little. Recent microwave imagery suggests that the hurricane may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the eyewall. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and based on a combination of these estimates the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The wind radii have been tweaked based on a recent ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 315/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered near 33N 60W. During the next 48-60 h, the hurricane should recurve through this break and accelerate northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the track guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 h due to the expected eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the GFS model during the extratropical stage. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 23.0N 48.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 23.0, -48.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven