...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 10.7, -34.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 106 WTNT33 KNHC 050836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 34.8W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 34.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 107 WTNT23 KNHC 050836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 34.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 34.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 34.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.1N 36.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.2N 38.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.9N 41.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.4N 43.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050547
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and
ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical
or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 02:42:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 03:29:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050239 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Leslie continues to become better organized this evening. An SSMIS microwave pass from 1946 UTC showed that Leslie had a small inner core with a well-defined mid-level center. Subjective satellite intensity guidance has held steady while objective guidance has increased significantly, creating a wide range of possible intensities (56-84 kt). For this advisory, the maximum sustained winds have been increased to 65 kt, which is closest to the SAB T4.0 classification. Leslie is the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic this season. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is steering the hurricane slowly to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. There has been no changes to the track reasoning. The ridge should be the dominant steering feature through the entire forecast period, turning Leslie northwestward by Saturday and continue this motion through the middle of next week. Only minor updates were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Based on the UW-CIMSS satellite wind analysis, Leslie is on the edge of a shear gradient, with the core in an area of moderate-to-weak vertical wind shear. Global models suggest environmental conditions will be conducive for about a day and half before the shear begins to increase and Leslie moves into a drier airmass. These conditions should induce gradual weakening. There is still a large spread in the intensity guidance envelope, which seems related to the strength of the vertical wind shear Leslie could encounter. Overall, the guidance has once shifted downward this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered at 60 h and beyond. The forecast still lies at the high end of the intensity aids and additional adjustments may be needed in later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 10.4N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 050237 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 10.4, -34.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 34.2W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 34.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected by Saturday evening or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast through Sunday followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050236 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 34.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 02:36:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 03:23:06 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and inner eyewall. The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt. Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system's east side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass. Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves in the strong mid-latitude flow. This track should take the core of the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across portions of western Europe by the middle of next week, Models are in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning on Saturday. Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20's C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 25.0, -49.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 49.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1610 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 49.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible overnight, but steady weakening should begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 050232 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......190NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:49:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 21:23:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:46:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 21:29:15 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Kirk has changed little in structure during the past several hours and remains an impressive hurricane with a well-defined eye inside a central dense overcast. There has been no recent microwave imagery to determine if the apparent outer eyewall seen earlier is still there. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are mostly near 115 kt, so the initial intensity for this advisory is set at that. The initial motion is now 325/10. Kirk is currently approaching a large break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered near 33N 61W. During the next 48 h, the hurricane should recurve through this break and accelerate northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, the cyclone should move quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance more or less is the same as seen in the previous advisory, with the exception of a southward nudge near 96 h. The new forecast track also has this nudge, but is otherwise little changed from the previous track. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 h due to the possible eyewall replacement cycle. After that, Kirk should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast again follows the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the GFS model forecast during the extratropical stage. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning this evening, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 23.7N 49.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.0N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 35.6N 46.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 39.1N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 45.0N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.5N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven