Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of 35 kt. Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Milton a few hours ago. The scatterometer data showed that the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt. Milton is not expected to move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the various dynamical models. The updated official forecast is slightly north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052046 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous. The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7 kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one. Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes Leslie over Kirk's cold wake. There continues to be some model differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur. The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends, and is slightly lower than the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 11.6N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 11.6, -36.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 36.0W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 052046 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 052046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 20(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 19(38) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 16(43) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 18(43) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 23(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 22(57) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 21(52) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 14(42) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 11(36) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 8(55) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 9(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 10(69) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 14(67) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 14(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 10(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 5(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) X(26) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 129 WTNT23 KNHC 052045 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 128 WTNT24 KNHC 052045 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 95.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 95.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Milton, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Milton was located near 22.7, -95.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 051725 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:02:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:36:48 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051459 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass is expected over the system later this morning. The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this track will bring the system across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 051458 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 14(33) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 25(51) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 12(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 11(55) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 11(42) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 14(65) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 17(60) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 6(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Fourteen was located near 22.1, -95.1 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:56:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:24:18 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051452 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 The inner core of Kirk has become a little less pronounced and ragged on satellite imagery, with the eye becoming more cloud filled. Shear is starting to increase over the system with some drier air intrusions becoming evident. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have come down with this cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. Kirk continues to turn more northward (355/14 kt) within the flow between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east Atlantic Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that Kirk should keep turning to the northeast and east-northeast through early next week and increasing forward motion. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. The hurricane is getting ready to move into a hostile environment with increasing shear and drier air. The system will also be traversing cooler sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast period. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h, which is supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening beyond 60 h in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 27.6N 50.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 30.1N 50.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 37.1N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 40.4N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 42.5N 33.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 43.5N 24.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 47.2N 5.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 54.9N 8.2E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly