...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 13.3, -37.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 37.9W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 37.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 061453 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.9W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 37.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.2N 39.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 45.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.2N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 37.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Storm Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the
Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.6, -94.9 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061149 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton has been moving slowly eastward overnight, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on NOAA dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 11:49:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 09:35:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 08:58:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 09:29:03 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060857 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 The center of Leslie was embedded within a cold, asymmetric central dense overcast for much of the overnight hours. But recently, geostationary satellite images indicate an eye feature is trying to emerge, with a warm spot in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of deep, cold convection. Based on these satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt, in best agreement with T4.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/9 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the north and northeast of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to build eastward over the eastern Atlantic and remain the primary steering feature for much of the 5-day forecast period. As a result, the NHC forecast shows a continued northwestward motion, remaining near the center of the track guidance envelope. Only small right-of-track adjustments were made to the previous forecast, mainly beyond 48 h. Some near-term intensity fluctuations are possible today, depending on whether Leslie is able to fully clear out an eye this morning. But overall, the environmental conditions are still forecast to become less favorable for further development in the coming days. Drier mid-level air, a more convergent upper-level environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should induce at least a gradual weakening trend in the coming days, and this is reflected in the latest NHC prediction. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.9N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 12.9, -37.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...LESLIE SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 37.3W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 37.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060855 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 37.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 135SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 37.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060855 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 08:52:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 09:23:08 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 08:50:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 09:35:14 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Kirk continues to show the ill effects of increasing southwesterly shear. Earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is vertically tilted, with the low-level center displaced to the southwest of the mid-level circulation. The eye feature that was evident earlier today has filled, and satellite intensity estimates are decreasing. Kirk's initial intensity is estimated to be 90 kt, in best agreement with a T5.0 Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB and recent UW-CIMSS D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based on partial data from a 0014 UTC ASCAT-C overpass. Kirk is expected to continue weakening during the next several days due to the negative influences of increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing SSTs, and a progressively drier mid-level environment. However, the expansive wind field of Kirk should remain large while the cyclone acquires frontal characteristics and transitions to an extratropical cyclone by 48 h. It is possible that the hostile conditions could cause Kirk to lose organized convection and become post-tropical even sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast was adjusted downward to follow the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus trends. The hurricane is moving north-northeastward (015/20 kt) within the flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer trough to the west of Kirk. The various track models agree that Kirk will continue accelerating deeper into the mid-latitudes while turning northeastward and east-northwestward over the next few days. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, showing the center of Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night into Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone and moving over western Europe during the middle of the week. Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Kirk was located near 33.5, -49.0 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 49.0W ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 49.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 060849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060849 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 49.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 410SE 540SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 49.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.2N 47.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.6N 42.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 250SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 120SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.9N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 240SE 240SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 51.5N 7.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART