Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061748
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on recently upgraded Hurricane Milton, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the
Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 15:54:07 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 15:33:29 GMT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -94.4 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061518 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Corrected for Motion description in the outlook section ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches) based on NOAA dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:59:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:59:37 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 583 WTNT44 KNHC 061458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening. A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be the initial intensity. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:58:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 15:23:07 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 061456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 3(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 3(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 2(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 1(52) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 47(66) 2(68) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 41(61) 3(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 3(55) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 10(38) X(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 6(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 18(66) 1(67) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 23(55) 1(56) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 1(27) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) 24(80) 1(81) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 24(50) X(50) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 32(75) 1(76) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) X(47) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 30(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 4(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 3(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 19(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 013 WTNT42 KNHC 061456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Most of Kirk's convection is now located in its northeastern semicircle as a result of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB at T-4.5/77 kt. Some of the objective CIMSS intensity estimates are still a bit higher, and the initial intensity is set to 85 kt, in agreement with the objective estimates. Kirk is expected to continue to weaken during the next several days due to strong southwesterly wind shear, which is expected to increase even more after 24 h. Also, the hurricane will reach cooler sea-surface temperature below 26C in about 12 hours. Global models indicate that Kirk should undergo extratropical transition soon, and the transition should be complete in about 36 h. Kirk's wind field is expected to remain quite large, which will continue to generate a very large area of dangerous seas over the Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle of the guidance. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast, or 020/22 kt within the flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer trough to the west of Kirk. The track guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement that Kirk will accelerate while turning northeastward and east-northeastward over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is close to the previous prediction, and shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, then moving over portions of western Europe Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. The initial wind radii have been increased based on data from a recent ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 38.1N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 41.1N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 43.8N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z 44.5N 15.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.7N 6.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 52.5N 9.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -94.4 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 012 WTNT34 KNHC 061456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Tuesday and during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches) based on NOAA dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 061455 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 10NE 25SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 15NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 140SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 94.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Kirk was located near 35.6, -47.7 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 061455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...KIRK ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE PRODUCING AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 47.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 061455 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 100SE 95SW 50NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 240SE 190SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 480SE 540SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 47.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.1N 45.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.1N 39.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.8N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 270SE 260SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.5N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 240SE 250SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.7N 6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 52.5N 9.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:55:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 15:29:00 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 061453 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY