...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.6, -89.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 90SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater
Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:34:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 15:22:59 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -88.8 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS A POWERFUL COMPACT HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.8W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 081432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081432 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea
northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern
Bahamas through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:47:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 09:22:58 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080846 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection, with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north. Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle, with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that this could occur sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.5, -88.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 080845 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 2(16) 1(17) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 10(25) 3(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 8(23) 2(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080559 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids beyond 48 h. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 930 FONT13 KNHC 080558 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY