5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 15:23:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafael’s remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.3, -91.9 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the remainder of this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 101433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 91.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 0SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 91.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas (AL98):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased in areal
coverage since yesterday near a trough of low pressure located less
than a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.
Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to
reach more unfavorable environmental conditions later today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 09:22:47 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.8 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100830 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 91.8W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Indirect rainfall associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local totals to 15 inches, across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana into this afternoon. This rain could lead to or continue significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 860 FONT13 KNHC 100830 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 12 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100830 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100546
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a trough of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the central
Bahamas. Some slight development of this system is possible before
it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions late today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible as it moves generally westward across the Bahamas through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 02:34:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 03:22:53 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael remains sheared this evening, with the remaining convection located to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. The circulation center itself is broad and appears to have multiple small vorticity center embedded in it. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. These winds are likely occurring in the area of convection northeast of the center and northwest of buoy 42001. The initial motion is now a slow 325/3. during the next 36 h or so, Rafael should make a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward. One change in the track guidance is that that the GFS and HWRF models turn the system move westward after 60 h and wind up to the north of the rest of the guidance. Overall, the new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and lies near the consensus models. Rafael should continue to weaken due to a combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate that the associated convection will dissipate between 24-36 h, with the circulation becoming elongated. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 36 h, with final dissipation by 120 h as suggested by most of the global models. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 100232 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.7, -91.7 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED AND DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 91.7W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 15SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 91.7W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN