000
ABNT20 KNHC 110531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible
late this week while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102312
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael, located over the central Gulf of
Mexico.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some slow development is possible
after that time while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:33:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 21:22:48 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102032 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael. The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see products from your local NWS forecast office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.3 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 91.3W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). The remnant low is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Rafael. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 102032 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 102031 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101716
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas (AL98):
Shower activity has diminished near a trough of low pressure located
near the central Bahamas. This system is located within an
unfavorable environment, and development is not expected. However,
locally gusty winds are still possible as the system moves generally
westward across the Bahamas through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 14:35:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 15:23:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101434 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Convection has continued to weaken this morning and move farther away to the east of the low-level center. Rafael’s remaining convection is all located more than 75 miles east-northeast of the center. A recent observation of a 33-kt 1-min wind from buoy 42001 indicates that Rafael still likely has tropical-storm-force winds. Gradual weakening is expected to continue because Rafael is located within a very dry environment, which is forecast to become even drier over the next 24 to 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model suggests that Rafael should lose its convection and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 h. Rafael is expected to become a remnant low either tonight or on Monday. Rafael has been drifting toward the north-northwest, or 345/3 kt. Rafael will remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it spins down over the next couple of days, performing a small clockwise loop over the central Gulf of Mexico through Monday in weak steering currents, before being pushed southward and southwestward by the low-level flow on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous NHC track forecast. The NHC forecast calls for the remnant low of Rafael to open up into a trough and dissipate by mid-week, and this solution is also shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast, and this will likely continue into Monday before subsiding on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.3N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.3, -91.9 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 91.9W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) with a gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the remainder of this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 101433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 91.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 0SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 91.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N 90.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.1N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.8N 92.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas (AL98):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decreased in areal
coverage since yesterday near a trough of low pressure located less
than a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.
Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to
reach more unfavorable environmental conditions later today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas
through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 08:31:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Nov 2024 09:22:47 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.8 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100830 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 91.8W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Indirect rainfall associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local totals to 15 inches, across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana into this afternoon. This rain could lead to or continue significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake