Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by Monday night. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 091443 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091442 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 91.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near the Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur during the next day or two while it moves westward to
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
and gusty winds are possible across the Bahamas through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 08:44:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 09:22:53 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Latest satellite images show Rafael has continued to burst deep convection throughout the early morning hours, although shear has impacted the symmetry of the convective canopy. The convection is displaced to the northwest of the low-level center, as aircraft reconnaissance reported earlier, and was further confirmed by a scatterometer pass around 0230 UTC. There have been no microwave passes tonight to assist with the storm structure. Satellite intensity estimates continue to run higher than the flight level winds from the earlier aircraft data, as they struggle to keep up with the rapid weakening. Given shear has continued to disrupt the circulation, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory, which is near the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours which will help better assess the storm structure and intensity. Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, with vertical wind shear and drier air impacting the storms structure. While the shear may decrease some after 36 h, relative humidities will drop below 40 percent around the same time which will lead to steady weakening. Given the unfavorable atmospheric conditions the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show steady weakening and follows the latest global model fields showing Rafael becoming a depression by 48 h and degenerating to a remnant low pressure area soon after that, although this could occur sooner than is currently forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest or 285/5 kt. A ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it slowly west-northwestward for the next 24-36 h. After that, the track guidance continues to come into agreement with the system meandering and eventually moving south to southwestward within the low-level wind flow as the system weakens. The latest NHC forecast was shifted slightly towards the latest simple and corrected-consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

...RAFAEL MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Nov 9 the center of Rafael was located near 25.0, -90.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 90.8W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected through today. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to cause 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Piney Woods and Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas as well as Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 090843 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090842 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 90.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090519
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while
it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles,
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos
Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:36:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Nov 2024 03:22:53 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 893 WTNT43 KNHC 090234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has become significantly less organized since the last advisory due to the effects of shear and dry air entrainment. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the cyclone a few hours ago reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 69 kt in the northwest quadrant and that the central pressure had risen to the 985-990 mb range. The aircraft also reported that the eyewall structure had disintegrated and that the 700-mb center was located northeast of the surface center. Microwave satellite imagery also suggests that the low-level center is now southwest of the main convective mass. Based on these data and the likely continued weakening since the aircraft mission, Rafael is downgraded to a tropical storm with the initial intensity of 60 kt. This value is a little below the latest CIMSS Satellite Consensus estimate. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening for at least the next couple of days. While the shear may decrease some after 48 h, the airmass is expected to be too dry for the system to make a comeback. The new intensity guidance follows the trend of the global models and the regional hurricane models in showing Rafael weakening to a depression by 60 h and degenerating to a remnant low pressure area soon after that. The initial motion is now west-northwest or 285/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer it lowly west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the track guidance has come into better, although not unanimous, agreement that the cyclone will make a small loop or hairpin turn and wind up moving south-southwestward as a ridge builds to its west. The new forecast follows the general direction of the somewhat-spread consensus models and lies a little to the east of the previous forecast after 36 h. Based on the current track and intensity forecasts, Rafael is expected to have little direct impact on land areas. However, swells generated by the storm should cause high surf along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.8N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.8, -89.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 792 WTNT33 KNHC 090234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 89.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42001 located north of the center reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 772 FONT13 KNHC 090234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 839 WTNT23 KNHC 090233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 89.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Near Greater Antilles:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola
northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of
days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater
Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and
eastern Cuba. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks
and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba
through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 21:22:55 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images suggest that Rafael is gradually losing strength and organization. The convective pattern has become ragged, and microwave images suggest that westerly vertical wind shear and dry air are beginning to take a toll on the system's structure. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael this evening, and that data will provide a better estimate of the hurricane's intensity. ASCAT data and earlier reconnaissance information indicate that Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. Rafael is expected to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday, and become a remnant low by day 3. This prediction is in line with the majority of the models. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Although there are differences in the models, they all agree that Rafael will remain over water and not directly impact land. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi