Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062352 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 83.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while Rafael moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring in squalls over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h) at the NOAA station at Sand Key. The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside tonight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 23.2, -83.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 062255 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... The Havana International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 67 mph...108 km/h. The next update will be provided in the intermediate advisory at 7 PM EST...0000 UTC. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 83.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA... As of 5:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.8, -82.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 062159 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 500 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA... Recently, the Havana International Airport has reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 mph (114 km/h). A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana recently reported a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). The next hourly update will be provided at 6 PM EST (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 500 PM EST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062048 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 8 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HAVANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Havana International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062047 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.6, -82.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 061957 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...EYEWALL OF RAFAEL APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...3 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... Rafael is nearing western Cuba and is expected to make landfall within the next couple of hours. The next update will be provided in the full advisory at 4 PM EST...2100 UTC. SUMMARY OF 300 PM EST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 82.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 17:55:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:23:35 GMT

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 1:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.0, -82.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061755 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located near western Cuba.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally
westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could
form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.
Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible
toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near
or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 14:55:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:23:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery. Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall structure. Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning. Dropsonde data indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon. Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening while it approaches western Cuba. The hurricane will be traversing warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it makes landfall in western Cuba later today. Some weakening is forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael's intensity later in the forecast period. The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael should continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is increasing spread after that time. Much of the guidance now suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system through much of the forecast period. This has resulted in a southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours. The new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 061452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 9 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) 2(26) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HAVANA 50 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HAVANA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 10:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 21.4, -81.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.