Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060850 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 80.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 05:47:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 03:23:00 GMT

Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060547 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 80.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rafael was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Grand Cayman radar near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 80.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move over western Cuba later today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael is forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally
westward during the next few days, and an area of low-pressure
could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.
Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible
toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 03:13:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 03:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060300 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 We have been fortunate to receive an abundance of in-situ data from both an Air Force Reserve C-130 and a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight. Their data indicated that Rafael had become a hurricane just after 00 UTC with peak 750 mb flight level winds of 79 kt from the NOAA-P3 and 700 mb winds of 73 kt from the Air Force C-130. On satellite imagery Rafael's structure continues to improve with very cold deep convection near the center rotating around the center. Radar reflectivity out of Grand Cayman Island also shows the inner core continues to improve with a 10-15 n mi diameter eyewall, though is still occasionally open on the southwest side. The initial intensity is set to 70 kt, based on NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar velocities up to 85 kt in the NE eyewall boundary layer, which was matched by an Air Force Recon dropsonde also launched in the NE eyewall at 0025 UTC that had a 500 m layer average wind of 85 kt. Rafael continues to move northwestward at 320/11 kt. A prominent low- to mid-level ridge centered offshore of the Southeastern U.S. should continue to steer the hurricane northwestward for the next day or so. This track will lead to Rafael moving through the Cayman Islands for the next few hours and then across the western portion of Cuba during the afternoon on Wednesday. Thereafter, Rafael will emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it is becoming increasingly likely that the aforementioned ridging will begin to build to the north of Rafael, leading to the hurricane turning more west-northwestward and slowing down as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. There have been notable changes in the global model guidance today, with the GFS track shifting significantly to the south and west over the past four cycles, closer to the ECMWF track. This evolution is likely partially related to changes in the upstream synoptic flow pattern, now showing a cutoff low digging into the four corners region rather than being more progressive moving eastward in the Great Plains. Such an evolution will allow a narrow ridge to become oriented directly over Rafael, substantially slowing its forward motion. Because it is becoming more evident the ECMWF synoptic flow pattern may end up being correct, the NHC track has been shifted leftward, especially beyond 48 h, compared to the previous forecast track. At the very end of the forecast, Rafael will likely become a shallow cyclone, drifting slowly northward in the low-level flow. Environmental conditions are very favorable for continued intensification, and given that Rafael now possesses a tight inner core and eyewall, rapid intensification seems likely. Strangely, the HAFS models did not appear to initialize correctly at 18 UTC, and were a good 5-10 mb too weak at 00 UTC tonight. Despite this, HAFS-B raw model output shows Rafael becoming a category 2 hurricane before moving over Cuba, and the NHC intensity forecast will now show Rafael becoming a Category 2 hurricane in 12 h. It is also not impossible Rafael becomes a major hurricane before impacting Cuba, with at least one hurricane-regional model showing this possibility this cycle (HMON). Rafael should briefly weaken over Cuba. After the hurricane emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the environment is not as favorable as the northwestern Caribbean, but is also not especially unfavorable from 24-48 h as it will remain over 27-28 C waters, and only 10-15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, mid-level shear begins to substantially increase after that time, and sea-surface temperatures from wave drifters just north of Rafael's forecast track are only 26-27 C. This one two negative punch will likely begin to result in weakening, which should become more rapid towards the end of the forecast period as very dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to be ingested into the storm. The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance in the first 12 h, but then falls closer to the HCCA consensus aid between 24-48 h, before dropping into the middle of the intensity guidance envelope by the end of the forecast. Rafael might be close to becoming post-tropical as global model guidance suggests it may lose most of its remaining convection in about 120 h. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.7N 80.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE N CUBA COAST 36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060256 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...HURRICANE RAFAEL PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 80.4W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to pass through the Cayman Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, and Rafael is now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael could briefly weaken over Cuba but is then expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An observation site on Cayman Brac recently reported a wind gust of 80 mph (129 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba late tonight into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands tonight, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the early part of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060256 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 3 20(23) 6(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 3 43(46) 8(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) KEY WEST FL 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 1 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 6(40) 1(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 3(38) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 6(29) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 8(10) 12(22) 5(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 5 88(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) HAVANA 50 1 60(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) HAVANA 64 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLE OF PINES 34 53 37(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLE OF PINES 50 7 44(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLE OF PINES 64 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CIENFUEGOS 34 81 4(85) X(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) CIENFUEGOS 50 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060254 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 1:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 20.2, -80.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 060021 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb (29.11 inches). SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located just southeast of Little Cayman Island.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. A portion of this system is forecast to begin
moving westward by early Wednesday, and an area of low pressure
could form near the northern Leeward Islands by Wednesday night.
Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during
the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward,
passing near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Thursday, and approaching the Southeast Bahamas by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 23:55:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 21:23:04 GMT

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 7:00 PM EST Tue Nov 5 the center of Rafael was located near 19.3, -79.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052355 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 79.9W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next several days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane shortly as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with additional strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 20:43:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052041 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an inner wind core during the past several hours. The radar data shows the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has fallen to near 989 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have been revised some based on the aircraft data. The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt. Rafael is currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72 h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the northern Gulf coast. After 72 h, there remains some significant spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast. The GFS weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion. The deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario, but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a westward motion. As mentioned with the previous forecast, until there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or so. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba. While the peak intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance, there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just above the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 4:00 PM EST Tue Nov 5 the center of Rafael was located near 19.1, -79.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 79.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 79.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next two to three days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane during the next several hours as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 052041 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 3 22(25) 17(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 3 31(34) 29(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 5(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 9(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 1(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 3(27) 1(28) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) 10(39) 2(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 5(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 7(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 1 75(76) 13(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HAVANA 50 X 34(34) 19(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HAVANA 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 5 60(65) 3(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLE OF PINES 50 1 41(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 49 37(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CIENFUEGOS 50 2 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 1(20) GRAND CAYMAN 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN