Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt. Since then, the center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear has caused some weakening. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/11. Rafael is on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h. The GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward. The ECMWF and UKMET forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone southwestward. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that support both of these possibilities. Given the spread and uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus models. The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period. The forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward. However, all of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the south of the forecast track. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a significant spread. Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for Rafael. Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as watches and warnings are in effect. Key Messages: 1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are still possible. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight. 3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 070252 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 2(23) 1(24) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 2(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 572 WTNT33 KNHC 070251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA... ...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, with little change in strength expected on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside tonight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 571 WTNT23 KNHC 070251 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM EST Thu Nov 7 the center of Rafael was located near 24.2, -84.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA... ...9 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... As of 9:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 23.4, -83.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA... ...9 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... The next update will be provided with the next complete advisory at 10 PM EST...0300 UTC. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 83.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen NNNN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rafael, located near the north coast of western Cuba.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move
generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low
pressure could form near the northern Leeward or Virgin Islands
tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this
system is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend
while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 23:52:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062352 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 83.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while Rafael moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring in squalls over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h) at the NOAA station at Sand Key. The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside tonight. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 7:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 23.2, -83.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 062255 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... The Havana International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 67 mph...108 km/h. The next update will be provided in the intermediate advisory at 7 PM EST...0000 UTC. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 83.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA... As of 5:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.8, -82.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 062159 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 500 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA... Recently, the Havana International Airport has reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 mph (114 km/h). A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana recently reported a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). The next hourly update will be provided at 6 PM EST (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 500 PM EST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062048 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 8 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 1(16) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HAVANA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HAVANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Havana International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062047 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... As of 4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 6 the center of Rafael was located near 22.6, -82.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.