5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:42:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 15:28:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:41:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 15:22:47 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041440 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Patty Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 Satellite images and satellite derived wind data indicate that the low-level center of Patty has become elongated, and opened into a trough over the northeastern Atlantic. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. The remnants of Patty will turn toward the east-northeast later today. Between tonight and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from the remnants of Patty. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 38.5N 16.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z...Dissipated $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041440 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and east sides of the circulation. The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence. The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and are possible in portions of Cuba early Wednesday, where Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect. There is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica this evening. 2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas later today. 3. The system is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding and mudslides are possible in these areas. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

...PATTY DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Nov 4 the center of Patty was located near 38.5, -16.2 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Patty Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 ...PATTY DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 16.2W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM E OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Patty were located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 16.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, the remnants of Patty are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across portions of Portugal and western Spain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 041439 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF PATTY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 16.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041439 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 300SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 16.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 17.1W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 16.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 041438 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15(28) 1(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 24(41) 1(42) 1(43) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) 2(25) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 6(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 11(35) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 22(38) 2(40) 1(41) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 21(46) 1(47) X(47) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 12(12) 55(67) 8(75) 1(76) X(76) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 29(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 42(43) 8(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 31(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) KINGSTON 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 722 WTNT23 KNHC 041438 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT... As of 1:00 PM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Eighteen was located near 15.1, -76.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 041204 TCUAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 705 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF 705 AM EST...1205 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 12:01:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:29:00 GMT

...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 7:00 AM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Eighteen was located near 14.8, -76.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 700 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041146 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 76.8W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 76.8 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours ...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days... high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 11:46:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:29:00 GMT

804
ABNT20 KNHC 041132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean east of
the Azores Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is
possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the
southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 08:52:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:29:00 GMT

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040850 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm activity. However, convective banding features are not yet well defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did not show a distinct circulation center. Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western portion of the disturbance. Since the circulation has yet to become well defined, the system is still being designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this time. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the aircraft observations. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6 kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly, with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast. As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction. For the next 48 hours or so, the system will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low vertical wind shear. Therefore strengthening is likely, but the amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation develops. If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the system reaches Western Cuba. Later, the environment over the Gulf of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong southwesterly shear and drier air. The official intensity forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba. 2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas later today. 3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall would then spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch