Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 22.3W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 22.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 032031 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 032031 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 22.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 22.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 23.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 22.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 17:49:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 15:22:52 GMT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE AZORES... ...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT... As of 6:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.2, -23.5 with movement E at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 600 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 600 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE AZORES... ...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 23.5W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Azores. For additional storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to continue moving away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later tonight. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean just east
of the Azores Islands.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system over the south-central
Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two as it moves generally
northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Interests in
those locations should monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba during the next few days. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern Bahamas
and adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or so while it moves westward toward Cuba and
the Bahamas. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending
its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next couple of days across the Greater
Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather is expected to develop near the
northern Leeward Islands around the middle of the week. Some slow
development of this system is possible after that time as it moves
generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 14:35:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031434 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 Patty is beginning to pull away from the Azores, with the center now just east of the easternmost islands. The storm is also on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone as deep convection has been absent for more than 6 hours. Recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes show peak winds in the 35-40 kt range, and based on that data and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The strongest winds are occurring on the system's south side, just south of the easternmost Azores. Very strong westerly vertical wind shear, stable air, and cool waters should continue to cause weakening, and Patty will likely degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Dissipation has been moved up to 60 h based on the latest global model guidance. Patty is moving eastward at 14 kt in relatively zonal flow, and an eastward to east-northeastward toward western Europe is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 37.5N 24.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.5, -24.3 with movement E at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 24.3W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 24.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to pull away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM GMT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 412 FONT12 KNHC 031433 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031433 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 24.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 300SE 480SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 24.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 25.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 24.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 11:42:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 09:22:58 GMT

...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND... As of 12:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.5, -25.5 with movement E at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031142 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 1200 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 25.5W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 25.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Azores Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 08:42:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 09:22:58 GMT

Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030840 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 The center of Patty passed south of Terceira Island early this morning and is now approaching Sao Miguel Island in the southeastern Azores. Satellite images reveal the convective structure of the storm has degraded, with warming cloud tops and limited convection that has become displaced to the north and east of the center. Based on these trends and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the intensity of Patty is lowered to 45 kt. The strongest winds are likely occurring to the south and southwest of the center. Scatterometer passes expected later this morning should provide more clarity on the storm's wind structure and current intensity. Patty is moving quickly eastward (090/16 kt) within mid-latitude westerlies over the northeastern Atlantic. A turn toward the east-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. No major changes were made to the updated NHC track forecast. The storm is already showing ill effects from westerly shear and dry air on its west side, and the environmental conditions are not expected to improve during the next couple of days. Therefore more weakening is anticipated, and Patty could lose organized convection and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday. Then, the global models indicate the low should gradually fill and eventually open into a trough by midweek near the coast of Portugal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Azores today, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 37.9N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.9, -26.0 with movement E at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.