Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY VERY NEAR SAO MIGUEL ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 26.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.0 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday and dissipate by midweek. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through today. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM GMT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030840 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030839 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 26.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 360SE 540SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 26.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 26.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 26.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 05:43:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 03:23:03 GMT

...PATTY PASSING SOUTH OF TERCEIRA ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES... As of 6:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.9, -26.8 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 600 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030543 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 600 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY PASSING SOUTH OF TERCEIRA ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 26.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 26.8 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores through today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low on Monday and dissipate by midweek. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through today. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Azores Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along
with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day
or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By early
this week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97). Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple
of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 02:35:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 03:23:03 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030232 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 The convective structure of Patty has changed some over the past several hours as the center passes just south of the central Azores. While the cloud tops have cooled, the convection is now mainly to the northeast of the center, and the overall cloud pattern is elongated south-to-north. The system remains embedded in a deep-layer cold air mass, with surface temperatures in the Azores currently below 20C. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little due to the decreased convective symmetry, and this is the basis for lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. Patty is expected to weaken over the next few days as the parent upper-level low decays to an open trough, leaving the storm in stronger shear. While this happens, it should also move into a drier and more stable airmass. This combination is expected to cause the convection to dissipate by 36 h, with the storm becoming a post-tropical low at that time. The latest global model guidance suggests that the remnant low is likely to decay to a trough by 72 h, so the new intensity forecast now calls for dissipation by then. The initial motion is now 095/17 kt. The mid-latitude westerly flow is expected to steer the cyclone eastward for 12-24 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the forecast track is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030232 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 81 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PONTA DELGADA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.9, -27.8 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 062 WTNT32 KNHC 030232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY CONTINUING TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 27.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through the weekend. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores through the overnight period. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) with local amounts to 4 inches (100 mm) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM GMT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 063 WTNT22 KNHC 030232 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 27.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 480SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 27.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 28.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 27.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Azores Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized at this time.
Gradual development of this system is still expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it
moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
gusty winds. Slow development of this system is possible during the
day or two while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. By
early next week, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low
pressure area over the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 23:35:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 21:22:50 GMT

...PATTY PASSING NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 12:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 38.0, -28.9 with movement ESE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1200 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022335 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 1200 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY PASSING NEAR THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 28.9W ABOUT 110 MI...270 KM W OF LAJES IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through the weekend. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM GMT (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 28.9 West. The storm is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near or just south of the Azores through the overnight period. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low late this weekend or Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend. For more information, see products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 21:05:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 21:22:50 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 20:36:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 20:36:14 GMT

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022032 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 Patty has not changed much during the past several hours. The storm has been maintaining a small core, though the cloud tops are not as cold as they were earlier today. The system is still co-located with an upper-level low and dry and stable air continues to wrap around the core region. These mixed tropical and extratropical characteristics continue to support Patty's subtropical designation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this is above the latest satellite estimates. Patty is located about 60 n mi south of the westernmost Azores, and it will be passing near the central and eastern Azores later tonight and Sunday. Weakening should begin soon as the parent upper-level low weakens, leaving the storm in more stable conditions and stronger vertical wind shear. The models suggest that the low could lose its core and deep convection by late Sunday, which should cause it to become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. Additional weakening is expected after that, and the storm will likely dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The subtropical storm is accelerating southeastward, and the latest initial motion estimate is 125/16 kt. An eastward motion is expected to begin overnight, taking Patty near or just south of the Azores through Sunday. An east-northeastward motion is expected after that toward western Europe. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through Sunday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 38.0N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi