5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:36:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 03:22:58 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 Patty has continued producing deep convection since the time of the previous advisory, although the convective structure has recently degraded slightly on the latest infrared images. The infrared satellite images and an 03/2138 UTC ASCAT pass depict a more compact cyclone with a confined radius of maximum winds than earlier in the system's life. Patty is also no longer co-located with the upper-level low that was earlier responsible for its hybrid characteristics. Based on these observations, Patty has made the transition into a tropical storm. The earlier ASCAT pass showed tropical storm force winds as high as 39 kt in the southern semicircle. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt. The initial motion of the tropical storm is estimated to be eastward, or 085/17 kt. Patty is expected to turn east-northeastward over the next day, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, closer to the latest track consensus guidance. All guidance insists Patty will weaken significantly during the next day or two as the cyclone encounters progressively colder sea-surface temperatures, stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. Although the timing of when Patty is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical has been pushed back slightly, confidence is fairly high that the system will be falling apart and weakening in a day or two. The various global models agree that Patty should open up into a trough and dissipate by hour 48, around the time that the circulation reaches the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Due to orographic lifting, some rainfall impacts appear possible for portions of Portugal and Spain from Patty's remnants. Key messages: 1. Between late Monday and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 37.7N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Nov 4 the center of Patty was located near 37.7, -20.0 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 ...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 20.0W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM E OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 20.0 West. Patty is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become post-tropical in the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Patty can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, Patty or its remnants are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across portions of Portugal and western Spain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 360SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 21.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 20.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040005
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean east of
the Azores Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather could develop from an interaction of
moisture with an upper-level trough digging near the northern
Leeward Islands around the middle of this week. Some slow
subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible after
that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Southeastern Bahamas:
A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the southeastern
Bahamas and adjacent waters. This system is expected to be absorbed
into Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AL18) over the Caribbean
Sea by late Monday, and development before that time is no longer
anticipated. Regardless, locally heavy rains are possible during the
next couple of days across the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 23:44:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:28:45 GMT

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... As of 7:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3 the center of Eighteen was located near 13.0, -76.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032343 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 76.9W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center was estimated near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is currently drifting slowly, but is expected to soon begin moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur tomorrow and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow and steady strengthening is forecast beyond that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:56:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:28:45 GMT

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... As of 4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3 the center of Eighteen was located near 13.0, -77.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032054 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 77.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north and then northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and steady strengthening is forecast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032054 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the disturbance over the south-central Caribbean Sea and their data indicates that the system has developed a closed center. However, deep convection is not quite organized enough to designate the system a tropical depression at this time. Given the potential for development and impacts to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, advisories are being issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. The initial motion is northeastward at 6 kt, but this is uncertain given that the system has only recently closed off. A turn to the north and then northwest is expected over the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean. This motion should take the disturbance near Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are in relatively good agreement during that time period, and the official track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, the model solutions diverge due to differences in the predicted steering patterns and vertical depth of the system by that time. Therefore, the NHC track forecast during that time period is of notably lower confidence. The environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next few days, and it seems likely that the system will become a tropical storm before it reaches Jamaica and a hurricane before it reaches Cuba. However, later in the week, southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should end the strengthening process and likely induce some weakening once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane regional models are very aggressive, however, their intensity predictions appear overdone, at least in the short term. The NHC intensity forecast is closer to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM and near the IVCN consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm Monday and pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba. 2. Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the Florida Keys tonight or early Monday. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm later this week, but given uncertainties in the long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late portions of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 032053 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) 1(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 3(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 1(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 6(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) 1(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 57(66) 1(67) X(67) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) 1(31) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 29(45) X(45) 1(46) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 14(48) X(48) 1(49) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 12(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 032052 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 77.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 77.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 20:33:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 21:22:50 GMT

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032032 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, thunderstorms have reformed near the center of Patty. Therefore, Patty will hold its subtropical storm designation for now. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. However, strong vertical wind shear, dry mid-latitude air, and cool sea surface temperatures should weaken Patty during the next couple of days. No changes have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast. The storm is moving eastward at 15 kt and is forecast to move eastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Patty is still expected to open into a trough near or over western Europe, and only minor adjustments have been made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 37.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 37.7N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 38.9N 14.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 41.2N 8.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... As of 9:00 PM GMT Sun Nov 3 the center of Patty was located near 37.3, -22.3 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 PM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 ...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 22.3W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 22.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low by early Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) across the Azores through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci