Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070844 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY LOITERING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 79.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An even slower motion toward the north and north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea remain disorganized. The
northern portion of this tropical wave could reach the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but any development should be slow
to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 05:37:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:23:05 GMT

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 31.8, -79.8 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070537 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 79.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 79.8 West. Debby is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected today through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the southeast and south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina beginning today and continuing through Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through this morning, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina through this morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:55:42 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:21:34 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 142 WTNT44 KNHC 070305 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Surface, satellite, and radar observations indicate that the center of Debby has emerged over the Atlantic southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The system is currently comprised of a large swirl of shallow to moderate convection with occasional patches of deep convection, particularly in bands to the east of the center. GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates that interaction with an upper-level trough has spread cool/dry air aloft over the low-level center, making the cyclone look somewhat subtropical. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar winds in the bands east of the center and a recent 1-minute wind of 31 kt at NOAA buoy 41008 to the southwest of the center. Debby is moving slowly and somewhat erratically eastward, with the initial motion of 090/4. The track guidance continues to show a generally eastward motion for the next 12-18 h, taking the center a little farther away from the coast. After that, a building mid-level ridge should cause the system to turn northward and move back inland between 24-36 h. Subsequently, Debby is likely to accelerate northward and northeastward over the eastern and northeastern U.S. on the east side of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The new forecast track has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous track through 48 h to better match the consensus models, and it has been adjusted to the right during the extratropical phase to better match the global model guidance. The dry air aloft, the lack of an inner wind core, and the lack of deep convection suggest that Debby is at best going to strengthen slowly, and this scenario is supported by the majority of the intensity forecast guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall between the 24 and 36 h forecast points. Weakening is expected after landfall, with Debby expected to become post-tropical around 72 h and complete transition to an extratropical cyclone by 96 h. The new intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance through 36 h and near the intensity consensus after that. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across portions of eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and northern New England through Saturday. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 31.8N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.0N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.4N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 36.9N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 39.9N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 47.1N 69.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 51.5N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:36:14 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 070234 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 11(14) 7(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 13(17) 9(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SURF CITY NC 34 9 24(33) 13(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 12(15) 12(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 34 35 29(64) 10(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 1 8( 9) 28(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LITTLE RIVER 34 45 24(69) 11(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 58 17(75) 8(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 4( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 2 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 31.8, -80.2 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 101 WTNT34 KNHC 070233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 80.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of Georgia from the mouth of the Savannah River southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the mouth of thee Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast while the center of Debby remains offshore. Weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Upstate of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through tonight, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 100 WTNT24 KNHC 070233 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.0N 79.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.4N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.7N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 36.9N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 39.9N 77.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.1N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 51.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 80.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 23:38:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:23:02 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the Georgia and South
Carolina coastline.

Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the central Caribbean Sea remain limited. Any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves over the western
Caribbean Sea and then interacts with Central America through the
end of the week. The northern portion of this tropical wave could
reach the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, where
environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for slow
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

...CENTER OF DEBBY NOW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 31.8, -80.6 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062333 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY NOW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 80.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.6 West. Debby is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to slowly move away from the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while Debby drifts offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Update of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through tonight, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:53:12 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:25:35 GMT