...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 35.1, -80.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more hours along portions of the North Carolina coast. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse, and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 082031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 80.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 80.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DEBBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 17:55:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.8, -80.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 80.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near inland latitude 34.8 North, longitude 80.2 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, centered inland near the border of North Carolina
and South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next few
days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move
generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles
by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:43:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081442 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy rainfall. Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models. Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream, which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic. Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about 24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of North Carolina. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 081442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DOVER DE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RICHMOND VA 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DANVILLE VA 34 25 8(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) RALEIGH NC 34 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ROCKY MT NC 34 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.5, -79.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 79.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River to Murrells Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north across central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of northeastern South Carolina and portions of coastal North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated with this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight from central and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 79.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 11:53:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:23:07 GMT

...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 34.1, -79.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081152 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 24A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... Corrected Maximum Sustained Winds in Summary Section SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 79.9W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located inland over South Carolina near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 79.9 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The storm is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area for much of the day. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward later today into central North Carolina and southern to central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

859
ABNT20 KNHC 081136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located over South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 08:54:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:23:07 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080853 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Surface observations and satellite imagery suggest that Debby's circulation has become stretched out to the north and south, but the center appeared to make landfall around 0600 UTC in the Bulls Bay area of South Carolina. A shield of moderate to heavy rain has spread northward into North Carolina, while a trailing band of deep convection is located offshore the coast of South Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission that concluded around midnight measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and SFMR winds of 40-45 kt well east of the center, and the current intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt. Debby's center has not yet made much headway into South Carolina since the initial motion is northwestward (325 deg) at only 4 kt. A strengthening ridge over the Atlantic should start giving Debby a push to the north today, with the center of the cyclone moving across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through tonight. A deep-layer trough over the Upper Midwest should then cause Debby to turn northeastward and accelerate over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast compared to the one in the previous advisory. Debby is expected to continue weakening as the center moves farther inland, and global model fields suggest that winds near the coast should fall below tropical storm force, with the cyclone becoming a depression, by this afternoon or evening. Model phase-space diagrams, and the convective pattern in simulated satellite imagery, then indicate that Debby will merge with a cold front and become extratropical over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Debby is shown to be dissipated by day 4 based on continuity from the previous forecast, but it is possible that an area of low pressure could continue eastward over the north Atlantic for a few more days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 33.2N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 34.2N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 36.3N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 44.5N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1800Z 48.7N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.6N 58.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

...DEBBY'S CENTER CREEPING INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 33.2, -79.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.