Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062054 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Surface, satellite, and radar data show that Debby continues to linger near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border. The cyclone lacks strong convection near its center and the tropical-storm-force winds are mainly occurring in some bands well to the northeast and east of the center. This was also shown by an earlier ASCAT pass. The central pressure remains essentially unchanged, and the intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory. Debby remains trapped in a zone of weak steering currents within the subtropical ridge, and the current motion estimate is a very slow 070/3 kt. The track guidance shows a generally eastward motion for the next day or so, taking the center temporarily offshore. In 24-36 hours, a building mid-level ridge should cause the system to turn northward and move back inland early Thursday. After that, Debby is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern and northeastern U.S. ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. The official track forecast has been adjusted toward the latest consensus model guidance, and is somewhat to the left and faster than the previous one. Assuming that Debby moves back over water tonight and Wednesday, some re-strengthening is anticipated. However since the cyclone lacks an inner core and is not likely to move far enough east to interact with the high oceanic heat content of the Gulf Stream, re-intensification is likely to be limited. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from central to the Upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina, Southwest Virginia through portions of Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State and northern New England through Saturday. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 32.1N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 32.2N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 32.6N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1800Z 45.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 52.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:45:02 GMT

...DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 32.1, -80.8 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062044 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 80.8W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Savannah River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 80.8 West. Debby is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday while Debby drifts offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central South Carolina to the Update of South Carolina, northward into Southwest Virginia, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, western and northern New York State into Northern New England, 3 to 6 inches with local amounts to 8 inches, are expected through Saturday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible across southeast Georgia through Tuesday night, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 062044 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 19(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 13(17) 10(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 16(21) 10(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SURF CITY NC 34 15 25(40) 14(54) 9(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 16(20) 13(33) 9(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) BALD HEAD ISL 34 53 19(72) 8(80) 3(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 3 5( 8) 9(17) 15(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 62 15(77) 6(83) 4(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 6( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 6( 9) 4(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 17:53:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 15:23:10 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 17:50:01 GMT

...DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 32.0, -80.9 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061747 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 80.9W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning south of the Savannah River is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 80.9 West. Debby is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia later today and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday while Debby drifts offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Savannah River, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches, are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the Central Florida Peninsula and southeast Georgia today which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina and coastal southeast North Carolina today through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

724
ABNT20 KNHC 061743
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located near the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.

Western Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the east-central Caribbean Sea have diminished in coverage and
intensity since this morning. Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development later this
week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 16:05:53 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 15:38:07 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 14:55:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 15:23:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 146 WTNT44 KNHC 061454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Surface synoptic data, satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar observations indicate that the center of the cyclone is near the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border. As a result of its interaction with land, Debby's intensity has decreased to near 35 kt. Most of the deep convection is occurring in bands well to the east and northeast of the center as drier air has been impinging on the southwestern quadrant of the circulation. Debby has been gradually turning to the right and slowing down, with a current motion estimate of around 060/5 kt. The cyclone is situated in an area of weak steering currents within the subtropical ridge. The track guidance shows a slow, generally eastward motion during the next day or so, bringing the center out over the South Carolina coastal waters. By late tomorrow and early Thursday, the global models predict a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east of Debby. This evolution should cause the system to turn northward and north-northwestward and move back over the coastline in 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, Debby is expected to move northeastward near the northeast U.S. coast at an increasing forward speed, ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the Ohio Valley region. The official forecast is a blend of the latest model consensus predictions. Although the center of Debby is forecast to be over water later today, the lack of an inner core should allow only slow re-strengthening for the next day or so. Since the system is not expected to move far enough offshore to interact significantly with the Gulf Stream, this should limit the amount of oceanic heat content available to the storm. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the latest statistical/dynamical DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Key Messages: 1.Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England through Sunday morning. 2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia to North Carolina through Thursday. Storm surge and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 31.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 14:53:39 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 061452 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 2(12) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 1(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) 10(17) 7(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 7(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 34 4 10(14) 19(33) 12(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 11(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) BALD HEAD ISL 34 12 22(34) 21(55) 11(66) 4(70) X(70) X(70) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 3 2( 5) 8(13) 22(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) LITTLE RIVER 34 15 20(35) 22(57) 12(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 25 19(44) 19(63) 10(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 2 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 2(15) 3(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 4( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 3( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 31.9, -81.0 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 81.0W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. Debby is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east and then north is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Debby is expected to move offshore the coast of Georgia later today and tonight, continue to drift offshore through early Thursday, and then move inland over South Carolina on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday while Debby drifts offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina beginning early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in North Carolina beginning Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Altamaha Sound, GA to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of the eastern half of South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From northern North Carolina through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 12 inches, are expected through Sunday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portion of the Central Florida Peninsula and southeast Georgia today which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions across that vicinity. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over coastal South Carolina and coastal southeast North Carolina today through Wednesday morning. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 377 WTNT24 KNHC 061450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER TODAY... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Debby was located near 31.9, -81.3 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.