Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080852 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY'S CENTER CREEPING INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina east of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of South Santee River, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.7 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) but is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest and north across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through tonight. Debby is then expected to move faster toward the northeast across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Debby is likely to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or evening. Debby should then merge with a front and become extratropical on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The tornado threat will shift northward today into central North Carolina and southern to central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 080852 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 2 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 18 15(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 68 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.7W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.7W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.2N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.3N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.5N 72.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.7N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 51.6N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080549
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located on the coast of South Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 05:45:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 03:23:00 GMT

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 33.0, -79.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080544 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that Debby has made landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located on the coast near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 79.6 West. Debby is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected later today and on Friday. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast today as the center moves farther inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through today, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For Long Island and the remainder of New England, 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina early this morning. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 02:34:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 03:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Debby has a large central area of light and variable winds, with bands of deep convection well removed from the center in both the northern and southern semicircles. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, with these winds likely confined to the area of stronger convection to the southeast of the center. The central pressure based on surface observations is near 994 mb. Debby has been drifting just west of due north for the past several hours with an initial motion of 345/3. This has brought the center near the South Carolina coast, and it is expected to move inland during the next few hours. A continued slow north-northwestward motion is expected for the next 24 h, with the center crossing eastern South Carolina moving into North Carolina. After that, the cyclone should recurve to the north and northeast on the east side of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes. The latest track guidance has shifted a little to the west of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is also shifted a little westward. Little change in strength is expected before the center moves inland. After that, Debby is expected to weaken, with the system dropping below tropical-storm strength after 24 h. As Debby crosses through the mid-Atlantic States, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and become an extratropical low by 60 h. However, it is important to note that none of these changes will diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United States during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 080232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) RALEIGH NC 34 1 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 25 21(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) WILMINGTON NC 34 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 58 15(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 50 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 92 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CHARLESTON SC 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...CENTER OF DEBBY ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 32.9, -79.5 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 79.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, bringing the center across the South Carolina coast during the next several hours. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected later on Thursday and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41013 near Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina tonight through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For Long Island and the remainder of New England, 1 to 2 inches, with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina overnight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 79.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 23:47:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:23:57 GMT

...CENTER OF DEBBY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Debby was located near 32.7, -79.4 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072347 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...CENTER OF DEBBY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, bringing the center across the South Carolina coast late tonight or on Thursday morning. After landfall, a faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight before the center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east if the center. A Coastal Ocean Research and Monitoring Program buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today through Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15 inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding expected across portions of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions. From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding possible. From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia. SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Debby, located just offshore of the South Carolina coastline.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 20:48:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:23:57 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 994 WTNT44 KNHC 072046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Debby is producing small, broken bands of convection around its center this afternoon. The storm continues to meander around NOAA buoy 41004, and data from that station indicate the central pressure remains around 995 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported peak SFMR winds of 47 kt within convection to the northeast of the center during their last pass through the storm a few hours ago. Based on these data and the earlier flight-level winds, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Although the storm is moving over warm waters, it lacks an inner core and has a large radius of maximum wind. Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the system approaches South Carolina, in best agreement with some of the statistical guidance. Once inland, Debby is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics and weaken. The interaction of Debby with the upper trough will lead to a baroclinic transition as the low merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical. The NHC forecast shows this occurring by Friday. However, it is important to note that these changes do not diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United States during the next few days. The long-term motion of Debby is a north-northeastward drift within weak steering currents between two subtropical high pressure areas. However, more recent fixes suggest the system may be turning northward as expected, with a ridge beginning to build to the east of Debby over the western Atlantic. Thus, a north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight while Debby approaches the coast of South Carolina. After landfall, Debby will become caught in southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes region. This will cause the storm to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Friday and into the weekend. With the guidance in good agreement on this scenario, little change was made to the updated NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. 2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area. 3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 32.5N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 33.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 36.2N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 09/1800Z 39.8N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0600Z 44.3N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 48.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 968 FONT14 KNHC 072045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 15 22(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 19 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SURF CITY NC 34 44 5(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) WILMINGTON NC 34 48 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 29 26(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FLORENCE SC 50 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 79 9(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LITTLE RIVER 50 4 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 85 8(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 12 15(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 85 7(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GEORGETOWN SC 50 13 22(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 34 69 10(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CHARLESTON SC 50 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAVANNAH GA 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART