000
ABNT20 KNHC 101731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical
depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next
week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the
Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

857
ABNT20 KNHC 101135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system
approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

611
ABNT20 KNHC 100522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby, located inland over Quebec, Canada.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some in association
with a tropical wave located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early
to mid part of next week while the system approaches and then moves
near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue
moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of
the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

834
ABNT20 KNHC 092332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized since yesterday. Slow development of this system
is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over
the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

059
ABNT20 KNHC 091733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the northeastern United States.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well
to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands over the tropical
Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Any development of the
wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving
generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the
Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast
to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach
the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Debby, located inland over North Carolina.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

524
ABNT20 KNHC 082328
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Tropical Depression Debby, located inland over North Carolina.
Future advisories on Debby will be issued by the National Weather
Service Weather Prediction Center.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development
of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days
while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form while it
approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is
then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could
approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression. Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few more hours. The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 082031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) DOVER DE 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 24 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) RICHMOND VA 34 10 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RALEIGH NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI