Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090856 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 95.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.2N 95.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 93.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.7N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.9N 90.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

872
ABNT20 KNHC 090542
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of the week, the system should begin move
westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In a couple of days, this
trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave.
Thereafter, Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 the center of Six was located near 22.0, -94.7 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.7W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was estimated to be near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 04:02:02 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 03:41:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:33:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:33:49 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090232 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 The system is gradually becoming better organized with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, earlier visible satellite imagery and aircraft data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the disturbance does not have a well-defined center and still resembles an elongated trough. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the aircraft data. The strongest winds are occurring on the system's west side, and are likely enhanced by the barrier jet associated with the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The initial motion is estimated to be 320/4 kt. A mid-level ridge situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic should steer the disturbance slowly northward or north-northwestward through Tuesday morning, likely keeping the core of the system off the coast of Mexico and southern Texas through that time. By late Tuesday, a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an approaching shortwave trough. That motion should take the cyclone to the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast on Wednesday. A north-northeastward motion is forecast after landfall when the system merges with the trough. The NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal since the system does not have a well-defined center. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as it will likely take some time for the system to consolidate and develop a well organized circulation. Once the system is able to close off and contract, steady strengthening is forecast as the cyclone will be over warm waters and within a region of high moisture and upper-level diffluence. However, some of the models show an increase in shear and slightly drier air affecting the system around the time it reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. The highest winds are expected to remain on the west side of the system during the next day or so, but these winds should shift to the eastern side of the circulation before the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas. 2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 090231 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 26(28) 3(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) X(28) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) 1(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 12(34) X(34) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 7(37) X(37) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 6(35) 1(36) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 49(57) 2(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 1(25) 1(26) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 9(36) X(36) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 6(45) X(45) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 56(59) 7(66) X(66) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 4(32) X(32) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 6(32) X(32) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 53(61) 2(63) X(63) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 2(30) X(30) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 1(42) X(42) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 47(73) X(73) X(73) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 3(46) X(46) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 38(53) X(53) 1(54) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 30(49) X(49) 1(50) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 39(55) 19(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 14(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 34(34) 39(73) 6(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 4( 4) 27(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 the center of Six was located near 21.9, -94.7 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for extreme southern Texas from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on Monday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090231 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 94.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 the center of Six was located near 21.9, -94.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082336 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 ...SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic have changed little in
organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during that time while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of the week, the system should begin moving more westward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected
to move little during the next couple of days until it potentially
interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west
coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are
expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of
the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2024 21:54:21 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2024 21:37:29 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 856 WTNT41 KNHC 082100 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 The area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico does not possess a well-defined circulation yet. Scatterometer and aircraft data indicate that it consists of an elongated trough of low pressure oriented north-northwest to south-southeast. However, there is a large area of 35-45 kt winds located southwest of the trough axis. These tropical-storm-force winds are also confirmed by an ongoing Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which found 975 mb flight-level winds up to 56 kt, with SFMR winds also quite high in the same vicinity. Some of these high winds are likely enhanced in part due to a barrier jet offshore of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. Because the system is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, and tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to be near the coast of Mexico within 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory based on a blend of scatterometer and aircraft data. The initial motion is highly uncertain given the fact that a well-defined center does not yet exist, but our best estimate is 320/4 kt. The track guidance shows this slow northwest drift continuing, though the center could reform or redevelop anywhere along the current trough axis as the center becomes better defined. Afterwards, the system is expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward as it rounds the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba. The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with the GFS and ECMWF models notably on the east side of the guidance envelope. The initial NHC track forecast won't go quite that far east, but splits the difference between the consensus aid TVCN and these eastward model solutions. Future adjustments could be necessary if these eastward trends continue. Given the current structure, the track forecast is of lower confidence than usual. Given that the current circulation is quite elongated, it will likely take a day or even longer for intensification to begin, and much of the wind enhancement on its southwestern side is more of a reflection of a barrier jet rather than the true intensity of the stretched out vorticity maxima. Both the global model and hurricane-regional model guidance suggest the circulation will become well-defined by tomorrow afternoon, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by that time. Until then, the intensity guidance, especially the statistical-dynamical guidance SHIPS and LGEM, likely show too much short-term intensification because these tools are designed for tropical cyclones and not elongated troughs. The hurricane-regional models HAFS-A/B seem to have a fairly realistic depiction of the system's current structure, and show little intensification for the next 36 h or so. Afterwards, as they depict the center becoming well-defined with contracting wind radii, they show more significant intensification. Between 48-72 h, PTC Six could interact with an upper-level trough centered over Texas, and its intensity as it approaches the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast will be governed by its inner-core structure and if it undergoes a favorable trough interaction. This initial forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane just before landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it moves northwestward to northward near or along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a portion of northeastern Mexico and additional watches may be needed for the southern Texas coast tonight. 2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 the center of Six was located near 21.6, -94.6 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 ...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast within areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions . Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin