Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101742 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 95.2W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings and watches are discontinued for the Texas coast south of Matagorda to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued all warnings and watches for the northeastern coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Texas coast from Matagorda to High Island * The Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 95.2 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected later this afternoon and tonight. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to move away from the coast of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this afternoon, move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. After landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Texas coast tonight and Wednesday, and they are also possible in the watch area on the Alabama coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions of the coasts of South Texas and northeastern Mexico this afternoon. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 16:05:25 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 15:25:39 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast and increased convective banding near the center. In addition, reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However, these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed, as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near 55 kt this advisory. After meandering last night, Francine is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward. In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at 12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 004 FONT11 KNHC 101448 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) 11(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 13(13) 26(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 7( 7) 62(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 29(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X 10(10) 71(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HOUMA LA 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 47(53) 28(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 8( 8) 18(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 7( 7) 70(77) 8(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 10(11) 76(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 54(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 10(10) 68(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 35(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 11(12) 74(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 9 85(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 280N 930W 50 1 78(79) 11(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 48(48) 17(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 11(12) 33(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 4 40(44) 31(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAMERON LA 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GALVESTON TX 34 6 32(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GALVESTON TX 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 950W 34 23 54(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 17(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MATAGORDA TX 34 6 16(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 6 12(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 62 7(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 270N 960W 50 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MCALLEN TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.9, -95.6 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 904 WTNT31 KNHC 101448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 95.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Mobile Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Mississippi coast east of the mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * The Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 95.6 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. After landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next few hours. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area on the Alabama coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 390 WTNT21 KNHC 101448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 11:54:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 09:22:59 GMT

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.5, -95.9 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 95.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 395 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east of Morgan City to Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. Francine is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located in the Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles
offshore of northeastern Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for some slight development during the next
couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during
that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to interact and merge with a
strong tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands over the next couple of days. Thereafter,
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this combined system, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the latter part of this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 10:05:03 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 09:27:27 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 10 Sep 2024 08:58:07 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 921 WTNT41 KNHC 100849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Francine has not become appreciably better organized overnight. There is a large cluster of cold-topped convection located well to the northeast of the center, but the central deep convection is still not very strong. Some banding features appear to be developing over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 55 kt for now, in agreement with earlier data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Objective Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little lower. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours and should provide a good estimate of Francine's intensity. Center fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT data showed little motion a few hours ago, but recent satellite imagery suggest a slow north-northwestward motion at around 340/4 kt. The general steering scenario for the next couple of days remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Francine should move mostly northward today along the western periphery of a mid level high over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By late tonight, a shortwave trough over Texas is expected to cause a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center of the system to the Louisiana coast tomorrow afternoon or evening. The model tracks are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, although there is still some cross- and along-track spread. The official track forecast in the 36- to 48-hour time frame has been nudged just a few tenths to the east of the previous one, and lies between the ECMWF solution and the multi-model consensus prediction. The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase. The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine's strengthening. Nonetheless, the SHIPS-RI Index shows a significant probability of at least a 25-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is now at the high end of the model guidance. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding for much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across portions of northeast Mexico and far southern Texas into early Wednesday, and the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 699 FONT11 KNHC 100848 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 26(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUMA LA 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 21(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 19(22) 46(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 37(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 22(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 25(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 6( 6) 44(50) 29(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 52(58) 24(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 20(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 7 58(65) 31(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 23(23) 59(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 6( 6) 51(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 5( 6) 41(47) 10(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 3 16(19) 58(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CAMERON LA 50 X 2( 2) 37(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) JASPER TX 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 7( 8) 29(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 6 23(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) GALVESTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 3 12(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 950W 34 12 66(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 35(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 9(11) 28(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 7 22(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 7 20(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 55 29(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 270N 960W 50 5 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 64 28 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LA PESCA MX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 the center of Francine was located near 24.4, -96.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 359 WTNT31 KNHC 100848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana * Vermilion Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Grand Isle * High Island to Sabine Pass * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield * La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 114 WTNT21 KNHC 100848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 96.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH