National Hurricane Center
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
Updated: 4 min 24 sec ago
Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to
improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary
satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from
earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into
Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a
partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure
down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data
were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since
then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become
apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity
is set to 55 kt for this advisory.
With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit
easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has
reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has
not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough
propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track
of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with
gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between
48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward,
likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a
little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a
shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast
towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA.
With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen
on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify
more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind
shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a
faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and
Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow
morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final
12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly,
which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is
expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening
is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity
forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but
still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance
(HAFS-B, HMON).
Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge
Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the
Louisiana coastline.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast
of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines
where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the
warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders,
given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and
southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and
urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from
Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
993
WTNT21 KNHC 092051
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 95.8W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 96.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Categories: Weather
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091750
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Francine, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical
Atlantic. By the middle part of the week, the system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western
Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Francine are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 17:46:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 15:22:53 GMT
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Francine (AT1/AL062024)
...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY...
As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 9
the center of Francine was located near 23.7, -95.8
with movement NNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 4A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091746
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 95.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 95.8 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore
of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approaching the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Recent Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification forecast on Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it
reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches)
based on dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Summary for Tropical Storm Francine (AT1/AL062024)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...
As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9
the center of Francine was located near 23.0, -94.9
with movement NNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091534 CCA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Corrected direction relative to Grand Isle in Watch and Warning
Summary section.
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this
morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70
to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance
Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a
cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near
the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough
evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC
Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of
45 kt this advisory.
The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently
formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4
kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered
over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its
northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little
eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again
nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference
between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of
Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent
amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing
along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.
While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field
per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing
stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after
an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's
vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant
intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,
high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface
temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are
pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48
h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast
RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in
48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After
that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases
from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it
approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system
is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,
but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models.
Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm
Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border.
With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes
inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be
available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the
inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone
graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational
cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is
an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation
for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should
follow advice given by local officials.
2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in
portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a
Hurricane Watch is now in effect.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico,
portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast,
southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the
Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 091455
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) X(21)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 1(27) X(27)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) 1(23)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 1(49) X(49)
HOUMA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
HOUMA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) 20(62) 1(63) X(63)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 1(53) X(53)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 1(57) X(57)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) X(40) X(40)
ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 48(61) 1(62) X(62)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 48(63) 1(64) X(64)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 54(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 32(37) X(37) 1(38)
FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 37(54) X(54) X(54)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19)
LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 36(44) 30(74) X(74) X(74)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 23(45) X(45) X(45)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 34(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 25(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 7( 9) 34(43) 31(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 14(46) X(46) X(46)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 20(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PORT O CONNOR 34 1 6( 7) 17(24) 14(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 5 22(27) 42(69) 8(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MCALLEN TX 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HARLINGEN TX 34 2 18(20) 10(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 7 32(39) 11(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 72 20(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 3 34(37) 14(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LA PESCA MX 34 5 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
TAMPICO MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Categories: Weather
Tropical Storm Francine Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 091453
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 100SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 94.7W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 11:37:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2024 09:23:00 GMT
Categories: Weather
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062024)
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY MID-WEEK...
As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 9
the center of Six was located near 22.0, -94.9
with movement NNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Categories: Weather
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 3A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091137
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Categories: Weather
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091107
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form while the system
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle part of
the week, the system is forecast to move westward-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In a couple of days,
this trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical
wave. Afterward, Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Categories: Weather