000
ABNT20 KNHC 311750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then continue across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle part of next
week. Later next week, environmental conditions appear to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is no longer expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions as the tropical wave moves westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form while it continues moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the system moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

048
ABNT20 KNHC 310545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. Surface observations continue to show no signs of a
closed circulation. This system is expected to meander near the
coast through much of next week, and some slow development is
possible if it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through late next week while
it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. Surface observations at this time indicate that
pressures are relatively high in this area, and there are no signs
of a closed circulation. This system is expected to meander near
the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is
possible if it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about a
thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form some time next week while it moves westward,
reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the
Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300500
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are a little
more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The system is then
forecast to continue moving westward to west-northwestward across
portions of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea by the middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just west of the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292340
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that have become a
little more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles. The
system is then forecast to continue moving westward to
west-northwestward across portions of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams

358
ABNT20 KNHC 291133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

725
ABNT20 KNHC 290524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development
of this system is possible this weekend into the middle of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development
of this system is possible this weekend into the middle of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity
well to the northeast of its center. Dry air and strong upper-level
winds are expected to prevent development of this system while the
low moves generally north-northeastward at about 10 mph during the
next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical Atlantic
is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible this weekend into early next week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing a small area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit additional development of this system during the
next day or so while the low moves northward to north-northeastward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
the system this weekend into early next week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280531 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Corrected product header.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Atlantic:
An area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear unfavorable for additional development of this
system. By Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen
over the system, and further development is not expected as the
system moves north-northeastward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272325
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271719
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

149
ABNT20 KNHC 270508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

330
ABNT20 KNHC 262333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin