000
ABNT20 KNHC 211709
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211114
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201722
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto, located over the northern Atlantic
Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:38:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 15:23:00 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201437 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024 Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface temperatures have caused Ernesto to lose tropical characteristics this morning. The cyclone lacks organized convection, and the low-level center is becoming exposed as dry air wraps into the circulation. Also, GFS phase diagrams indicate Ernesto no longer has a warm-core structure. Thus, it appears the cyclone has completed its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Despite these structural changes, nearby ship observations indicate Ernesto remains a powerful cyclone with storm-force winds in its southern semicircle. Based on these observations, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly northeastward (055/32 kt) within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. An even faster east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded within strong steering currents. The system is forecast to merge with a frontal system and become extratropical by tonight, and the low should dissipate on Wednesday over the northeastern Atlantic. Although some weakening is expected during the next day or so, the cyclone will maintain a large wind field to the south of its center. This is the last NHC advisory on Ernesto. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 49.0N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ERNESTO BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 the center of Ernesto was located near 49.0, -44.7 with movement NE at 37 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201436 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...49.0N 44.7W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto was located near latitude 49.0 North, longitude 44.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and an even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and post-tropical Ernesto is forecast to merge with a frontal system and dissipate by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by post-tropical Ernesto are affecting the northeast coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada. The swells and associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ernesto. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 201436 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 139 WTNT25 KNHC 201435 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 420SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 240SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N 44.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ERNESTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 08:40:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 09:22:48 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 939 WTNT45 KNHC 200838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 Increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear is affecting the cyclone, displacing most of the remaining deep convection to the east of the low-level center. The system's cloud pattern is already taking on a less tropical-looking appearance, making intensity estimates via the Dvorak technique somewhat problematic. However, a couple of ship reports of winds of 58 and 51 kt to the east of the center indicate that Ernesto is still near hurricane strength. Thus, the advisory intensity is set at 65 kt. The hurricane has been accelerating northeastward and the initial motion estimate is 050/31 kt. Ernesto is embedded within a strong deep-layer flow between a large trough over the northeastern U.S. and a ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic. In a day or so, an even faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast is likely as the cyclone comes more under the influence of a large deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, and follows the multi-model consensus solution. Continued weakening is likely as Ernesto moves over cold water and remains under the influence of strong shear. Based on current trends and simulated satellite imagery from the global models, the system's deep convection should be disrupted to the point that Ernesto will have become a post-tropical cyclone in about 12 hours. In 24 hours, the guidance shows a frontal appearance indicating extratropical transition. In 36 hours or so, Ernesto is predicted to open up into a trough over the northeastern Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 47.3N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 20 the center of Ernesto was located near 47.3, -50.0 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 179 WTNT35 KNHC 200837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 20 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.3N 50.0W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 47.3 North, longitude 50.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move over the open North Atlantic today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Ernesto should lose its tropical characteristics later today, and dissipate on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. The swells and the associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 145 FONT15 KNHC 200837 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200836 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 360SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 50.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 170SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 52.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.3N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 02:33:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 03:22:50 GMT