Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020241 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Kirk has stopped its strengthening trend for the moment. Geostationary satellite imagery has shown a large primary band extending around the northern and eastern portions of the circulation, with a dry air intrusion making its way into the inner core. An SSMIS microwave pass from 1915 UTC showed that the eyewall was open to the southwest. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, closest to the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer Kirk in the same general direction through Thursday. By the end of the week, a trough exiting the eastern U.S. seaboard should weaken the ridge and turn Kirk northward, followed by a turn to the north-northeast over the weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered and only minor updates have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. Kirk is expected to continue strengthening in the coming days. Global models forecast the deep-layer vertical wind shear to remain weak and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track during the next few days. The vertical wind shear is predicted to gradually increase over the weekend and will likely induce a weakening trend by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and now lies at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, closest to HCCA. As mentioned earlier, Kirk is a large system and expected to grow larger as it moves northward, with tropical-storm-force winds extending far from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 43.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.8N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 22.3N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 24.0N 49.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 28.8N 50.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 35.3N 46.4W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

...KIRK HOLDING STEADY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Kirk was located near 16.7, -40.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...KIRK HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 40.8W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 40.8 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020240 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 287 WTNT22 KNHC 020238 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.8W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.8W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.6N 42.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.7N 43.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 48.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 49.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N 46.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 200SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the
Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly
westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 20:57:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 21:23:08 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012055 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Kirk's appearance on satellite has improved with a large burst of convection near the center and deep convective bands continuing to wrap around the southeast side. A 1808 UTC GPM microwave pass showed an improved inner-core structure with an eyewall noted on the 37 GHz channel. The UW-CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate associated with the microwave image was 63 kt. This estimate combined with the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix of 4.0/65 kt is the basis for making Kirk a hurricane this afternoon with an intensity of 65 kt. Kirk is moving slightly more poleward this afternoon, with an estimated motion of 305/12 kt. This motion, with perhaps a slight slowdown, should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward and then recurving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory and between the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Now that Kirk's inner core is becoming better established it is poised to intensify at a faster rate. Favorable environmental factors surrounding Kirk, such as decreasing shear, warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of deep-layer moisture will continue to support a faster rate of strengthening through the 24-48 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane towards the end of the forecast period. In addition, Kirk's wind field is forecast to expand as the system moves poleward through the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5, shear increases again with weakening commencing. However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane through the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the intensity guidance consensus and still a little on the upper-end towards the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.2N 40.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Mora/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 012054 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN

...KIRK BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Kirk was located near 16.2, -40.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012054 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...KIRK BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 40.1W ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 40.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a general west-northwestward to northwest motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Mora/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 012054 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.1W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 40.1W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 39.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.3N 43.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 44.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 46.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 47.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 49.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 27.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 115SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 40.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or
this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mora

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 345 WTNT42 KNHC 011453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Kirk's structure on satellite is gradually becoming better organized, with deep convective bands attempting to wrap around the center, though there still remains evidence that dry air could be getting into the core on the western side. Some of this less humid air could be getting imported due to subtle northerly mid-level shear above 20-kt as diagnosed by the ECMWF analysis this morning. With that said, we have received some fortuitous surface data from a moored PIRATA buoy (13008) that Kirk passed close by this morning at around 09 UTC. The buoy reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds at 4 meters, and a concurrent minimum pressure down to 990 mb. Thus the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt with an estimated minimum pressure a little lower at 988 mb. This intensity is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates but closest to the latest DPRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Kirk is still moving west-northwestward, estimated at 300/11 kt. This motion with perhaps a slight slowdown should continue over the next couple of days as Kirk is primarily steered along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge positioned to its north. The western extent of this ridge will become eroded by a long-wave trough offshore of eastern North America towards the latter part of this week, allowing Kirk to turn first northwestward and then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, very similar to the prior advisory and between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. While Kirk is stronger this morning, it is feeling some of the effects of the aforementioned mid-level shear, preventing convection from fully wrapping around the center. However, other environmental factors, namely warm 28-30 C sea-surface temperatures and plenty of deep-layer moisture, are quite conducive for strengthening. For now, the shear is anticipated to prevent a faster rate of intensification, but Kirk should become a hurricane later today. After 24 h, even the mid-level shear is expected to decrease, and a faster period of intensification is likely in the 24-60 h period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane at the end of this period. In addition, Kirk's wind field is also forecast to grow in size by the end of the week. Thereafter, hard to predict inner-core structural changes will likely lead to fluctuations in intensity, though by day 5 shear begins to increase again with weakening beginning by that time. However, Kirk will likely remain a large and formidable hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is close the middle of the guidance envelope early on but is near the higher end of the aids in 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 378 FONT12 KNHC 011452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Kirk was located near 15.3, -39.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 393 WTNT32 KNHC 011451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 ...NEARBY BUOY FINDS A STRONGER KIRK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 39.2W ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 39.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more northwestward over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Kirk should become a hurricane by tonight, and a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. A PIRATA Buoy (13008) earlier this morning measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). A PIRATA Buoy 13008 earlier reported a minimum pressure of 990.2 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 394 WTNT22 KNHC 011451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 130SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 39.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 48.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:55:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 15:22:51 GMT

988
ABNT20 KNHC 011148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mora