Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 032037 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.5W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.5W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 31.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 31.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend
into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 190 WTNT23 KNHC 031437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 30.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:43:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:23:06 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031440 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP corrected-consensus aid. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:29:02 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 031439 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Kirk was located near 20.4, -45.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...KIRK STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 45.9W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 45.9 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031439 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 45.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 95NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 240SW 260NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 531 WTNT43 KNHC 031438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity of 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake of Hurricane Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -30.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031437 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 30.8W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 031437 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

961
ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this
weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Leslie
are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:42:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:29:00 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:41:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:23:07 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030840 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm's current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near the CI numbers. Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours, Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the previous advisory. The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is now forecast to be extratropical by day 5. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

...LESLIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.3, -30.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.