Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 041431 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041431 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 48.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.8N 48.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.3N 25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 48.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 08:50:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 09:23:10 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Kirk remains a large, powerful hurricane with an impressive satellite presentation. The hurricane has a clear, circular 20 n mi- wide eye that is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are T6.0/115 kt, while the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates are around 125-130 kt. A blend of these values supports holding the initial intensity at 125 kt. The wind radii of Kirk were made slightly larger based on an earlier ASCAT overpass. A subtropical high to the northeast of Kirk is steering the hurricane northwestward (310/9 kt), but a northward turn is expected on Saturday while the hurricane moves between the western extent of the subtropical ridge and a shortwave trough approaching from the west. Then, Kirk is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the mid-latitudes on Sunday through early next week, ahead of a deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic. The track guidance agrees on this recurvature scenario, and the NHC prediction is very similar to the previous one with only slight left-of-track adjustments to follow the multi-model consensus trends. Satellite intensity estimates peaked overnight, and there is evidence of some restriction of Kirk's upper-level outflow to the west of the hurricane in recent satellite images. The shear is expected to increase over Kirk during the next few days, along with the potential for intrusions of dry air that could disrupt the hurricane's convective organization. So while small short-term intensity fluctuations are possible, the overall forecast trend is for gradual weakening through Saturday, with more steady weakening into early next week. As Kirk moves over cooler waters and into a more baroclinic environment, it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone by 96 h over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the latest HCCA aid. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 22.3N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 08:46:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 09:29:12 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040845 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 A 0421 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Leslie has developed a well-defined low-level structure, along with what appears to be an attempt at an eyewall feature south of the center. This asymmetry in the convection is the result of continued moderate shear out of the north-northeast. ASCAT-C data from several hours ago showed several 44-kt wind barbs northwest of the center. Given the typical undersampling of this instrument, and the storm's improved structure despite the shear, the initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The GMI and ASCAT passes helped immensely in locating Leslie's center, which is a little farther south than previously estimated. Leslie is moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. With the ridge expected to remain centered over the eastern Atlantic, Leslie is forecast to gradually turn west-northwestward later today and then toward the northwest in about 48 hours, with that motion continuing through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is near a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and any differences from the previous prediction should be considered negligible. The deep-layer shear affecting Leslie is likely to abate in about 12 hours. However, there are a few environmental features that could potentially limit Leslie's rate of intensification. Mid-level shear and dry air are shown to be the biggest negative factors in the SHIPS diagnostics, and Leslie may end up moving over Hurricane Kirk's cold wake. Additional strengthening is still anticipated, however much of the intensity guidance has come down on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous forecast to follow this trend, but it lies near or above the highest intensity models for most of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 9.8N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Kirk was located near 22.3, -48.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040844 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...KIRK REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 48.1W ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 48.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 040844 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 9.8, -32.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 ...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 32.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 32.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040844 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 48.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 49.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.7N 50.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 46.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 47.0N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 30NW. 34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 32.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040521
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 02:41:13 GMT


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Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 252 WTNT43 KNHC 040235 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 There has been little change in Leslie's appearance this evening. Based on the CIMSS-UW satellite wind analyses, the storm is still being sheared by the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. Convection continues to pulse near the center with a curved band wrapping around the southern portion of the circulation. Subjective satellite intensity estimates have held steady this cycle and the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Leslie is moving slowly just south of due west at 265/5 kt. A subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to slowly move Leslie westward overnight and then gradually turn the storm west-northwestward on Friday. By the end of the weekend, Leslie is expected to accelerate and turn northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast have been nudged slightly westward from the previous prediction, largely due to a more westward initial position. Despite the vertical wind shear caused by Hurricane Kirk, Leslie is expected to steadily strengthen in next couple of days due to warm ocean waters and sufficient mid-level moisture. As the shear abates in 48-72 h, Leslie could strengthen more quickly, however the spread in model guidance is rather large as these forecast hours. Factors such as how long Leslie is over Kirk's cold wake could slow or stall intensification. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the earlier advisory and lies near the top of the guidance envelope, closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 10.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

...LITTLE LESLIE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.0, -32.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.